AU - Mornington - Race 2

Thoroughbred

9 Runners

15.1f

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

26.6K

VIEW

Verdict

KARBURAN (1) just gets the nod. He's struggling to break through but the same could be said for most of these, having tried hard at Cranbourne last time out over 1 ?/16m when just edged out late. He'll have no issue running out a strong 1 ?m and his ability to take up the running is a big advantage. JEALOUS (5) is another struggling to win but racing well, on the quick turnaround from Saturday at Pakenham when working home well for third. This suits. NATURAL RULER (2) is lightly raced and should stay well. He was just ahead of Karburan when they met recently which has him firmly in the mix. WHISKY MOON (6) is lightly raced and has to be included.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	At the latest run 2nd of 12 at Cranbourne Bm66 on December 5 over 1/16m, neck behind Eagle Angel carrying 131lbs at $7. The run before that did the work up front then tired 6th of 13 at Cranbourne Bm70 on November 22 over 1/16m, 5.5 len behind Black Peppermint with 132lbs at $4.60. Finds the right race, takes catching. 1st Pick 1 Karburan Jockey: Craig Newitt Trainer: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young J: Craig Newitt T: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young	178	-	-	-	23%
Analysis At the latest run 2nd of 12 at Cranbourne Bm66 on December 5 over 1/16m, neck behind Eagle Angel carrying 131lbs at $7. The run before that did the work up front then tired 6th of 13 at Cranbourne Bm70 on November 22 over 1/16m, 5.5 len behind Black Peppermint with 132lbs at $4.60. Finds the right race, takes catching.
3	Most recently 7th of 9 at Caulfield Bm84 on November 29 over 1 ½m, on a slow track, 1.3 len behind Black Run with 110lbs at $7. The run before that 6th of 12 at Caulfield Bm80 on November 15 over 1 ½m, 3.5 len behind Black Run carrying 125lbs at $13. Can stalk the danger and prove very hard to hold out. 2nd Pick 3 Genrichero Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Matt Laurie J: Non Runner T: Matt Laurie	182	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis Most recently 7th of 9 at Caulfield Bm84 on November 29 over 1 ½m, on a slow track, 1.3 len behind Black Run with 110lbs at $7. The run before that 6th of 12 at Caulfield Bm80 on November 15 over 1 ½m, 3.5 len behind Black Run carrying 125lbs at $13. Can stalk the danger and prove very hard to hold out.
5	Form hard to fault. Most recently made ground from midfield, 3rd of 10 at Pakenham Bm78 on December 13 over 1/16m, slow going 5.5 len behind Shockletz with 115lbs at $26. Before that 4th of 12 at Cranbourne Bm66 on December 5 over 1/16m, 1.0 len behind Eagle Angel with 128lbs at $7.50. Quick turnaround, going well and should take beating. 3rd Pick 5 Jealous Jockey: Beau Mertens Trainer: Mark Walker J: Beau Mertens T: Mark Walker	172	-	-	-	34%
Analysis Form hard to fault. Most recently made ground from midfield, 3rd of 10 at Pakenham Bm78 on December 13 over 1/16m, slow going 5.5 len behind Shockletz with 115lbs at $26. Before that 4th of 12 at Cranbourne Bm66 on December 5 over 1/16m, 1.0 len behind Eagle Angel with 128lbs at $7.50. Quick turnaround, going well and should take beating.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Blinkers

A hood worn on a horse’s head to limit side vision, which can improve concentration. Blinkers are added or removed to relax a horse or give it more focus.

Handicap

A race where a handicapper has assigned weights to be carried by all runners on the basis of their past racing efforts.

Yielding

A rain-soaked turf condition often producing a slick or heavy course and slower finish times.