AU - Caulfield - Race 4

Thoroughbred

15 Runners

11.9f

OPEN

Turf

GOOD 4

278.6K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

Very tough, largely because a lot of the key chances are looking to the Cups and there may not be much intent to cop a penalty. We'll roll the dice once more with CAMPALDINO (2) who has been disappointing his past two. He backs up from last week where he faded after leading but he's gone way too slow in front again for a horse that lacks any change up speed. If he's ridden aggressively and allowed to roll he can improve out of sight. Very wary of PINHOLE (12) who is terribly in at the weights but is progressive, beating a handy one last time. He'll improve again to this trip and is one that looks 'here to win'. SHOCKLETZ (14) and ZAKOUMA (4) are both assured of Melbourne Cup berths which is the niggle. Shockletz was very good winning last time, Zakouma is ticking along beautifully but expect both are ridden out the back. FUTURE HISTORY (3) tried hard in a slow race second up and looks ready to win from an ideal draw.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
2	Last start faded in the straight 7th of 13 in a G3 The Bart Cummings at Flemington on October 3 over 1/16m, in the wet, 6 len behind Mr Monaco carrying 128lbs at $9. The race before that sat behind the speed prior to fading 12th of 16 in the G3 Naturalism Stakes at this track on September 19 over 1 ¼m, 4 len behind Zahrann carrying 127lbs at $26. He can improve in a proper staying test. 1st Pick 2 Campaldino Jockey: Jordan Childs Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott J: Jordan Childs T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott	114	-	-	-	4%	25/1
Analysis Last start faded in the straight 7th of 13 in a G3 The Bart Cummings at Flemington on October 3 over 1/16m, in the wet, 6 len behind Mr Monaco carrying 128lbs at $9. The race before that sat behind the speed prior to fading 12th of 16 in the G3 Naturalism Stakes at this track on September 19 over 1 ¼m, 4 len behind Zahrann carrying 127lbs at $26. He can improve in a proper staying test.
12	Third-up today and won third-up previously. Resuming 3rd of 11 in a Bm94 at Randwick on September 5 over 1m, 1.4 len behind The Mona Lisa with 116lbs at $21. Second-up won by a nose in a Bm88 at Rosehill on September 26 over 1 ³/16m defeating Starzintheireyes carrying 126lbs at $12. Has upside and intent with McDonald booked. 2nd Pick 12 Pinhole Jockey: James Mcdonald Trainer: Chris Waller J: James Mcdonald T: Chris Waller	141	-	-	-	27%	11/4
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up previously. Resuming 3rd of 11 in a Bm94 at Randwick on September 5 over 1m, 1.4 len behind The Mona Lisa with 116lbs at $21. Second-up won by a nose in a Bm88 at Rosehill on September 26 over 1 ³/16m defeating Starzintheireyes carrying 126lbs at $12. Has upside and intent with McDonald booked.
14	Form hard to fault. Most recently favourite, came from midfield and won by 2.25 len in the G3 Archer Stakes at Flemington on September 12 over 1/16m defeating Think Giant carrying 120lbs at $2.90. The start before that 4th of 15 in a Qlty at this track on August 29 over 1 ¼m, slow going 3 len behind Saint George carrying 117lbs at $10. Big win last time, level of intent the key given she's in the Melbourne Cup already. 3rd Pick 14 Shockletz Jockey: Harry Coffey Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: Harry Coffey T: Ciaron Maher	118	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Form hard to fault. Most recently favourite, came from midfield and won by 2.25 len in the G3 Archer Stakes at Flemington on September 12 over 1/16m defeating Think Giant carrying 120lbs at $2.90. The start before that 4th of 15 in a Qlty at this track on August 29 over 1 ¼m, slow going 3 len behind Saint George carrying 117lbs at $10. Big win last time, level of intent the key given she's in the Melbourne Cup already.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Exacta

A bet selecting the first and second horses in a race in the correct order. An exacta box refers to paying a little more to ensure they can finish in either order.

Stakes Race

Stakes Races are known as better class races, with higher purses and often accompanies by trophies.

Objection

Claim of foul lodged by a jockey for perceived dangerous or illegal riding by a rival.