AU - Caulfield - Race 4

Thoroughbred

10 Runners

OPEN

Turf

GOOD 4

162.7K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

Very tough. CAFFETTIERA (6) is on the quick backup from Cranbourne having tried hard over 7f there, just no match for the winner in solid time. The win prior at Mornington was quite sharp and back to 6f here can see her settle close to the speed and out tough them late. NAIFAH (5) comes through the best form having finished fifth in the G3 Red Roses last start at Flemington behind Point Barrow and Inkaruna, the latter of whom has won well since. The maiden win fresh was dominant and she'll get a soft trail from the inside gate. REGENERATION (2) was just edged out fresh, atoning with a soft win at Geelong at $1.30 last time. He'll need to improve again but profiles to do so. MOTORSPORTS (9) was too good on heavy ground last start and should be able to measure up again. CHERGUI (1) had some excuses last time. He's more exposed than most of these but does get Zahra.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
6	Recent form sound. Last start ran on from midfield, 2nd of 8 at Cranbourne 3yo Hcp on November 22 over 7f, 1.5 len behind Maldini with 119lbs at $5. The run before that raced right near the speed and boxed on, won by 1.0 len at Mornington 3yo F Mdn-Sw November 2 over 6f defeating Flower Fairy carrying 126lbs at $3. On the quick turnaround here, should take beating. 1st Pick 6 Caffettiera Jockey: Craig Williams Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman J: Craig Williams T: Anthony & Sam Freedman	154	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Recent form sound. Last start ran on from midfield, 2nd of 8 at Cranbourne 3yo Hcp on November 22 over 7f, 1.5 len behind Maldini with 119lbs at $5. The run before that raced right near the speed and boxed on, won by 1.0 len at Mornington 3yo F Mdn-Sw November 2 over 6f defeating Flower Fairy carrying 126lbs at $3. On the quick turnaround here, should take beating.
5	Third-up today. First-up raced right near the speed and boxed on, won by 2.5 len at Hawkesbury Super Mdn October 23 over 5f defeating Composed carrying 130lbs at $2.90. Second run from a spell 5th of 16 at Flemington in the G3 Red Roses on November 6 over 5 ½f, 4 len behind Point Barrow with 121lbs at $41. Measured up well last time, this suits. 2nd Pick 5 Naifah Jockey: Beau Mertens Trainer: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr J: Beau Mertens T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr	162	-	-	-	16%	11/2
Analysis Third-up today. First-up raced right near the speed and boxed on, won by 2.5 len at Hawkesbury Super Mdn October 23 over 5f defeating Composed carrying 130lbs at $2.90. Second run from a spell 5th of 16 at Flemington in the G3 Red Roses on November 6 over 5 ½f, 4 len behind Point Barrow with 121lbs at $41. Measured up well last time, this suits.
2	Third-up today. First-up raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 8 at Sale Mdn-Sw on October 26 over 6f, on a slow track, neck behind Whiskey Joe carrying 126lbs at $2.70. Second-up favourite, won by 1.0 len at Geelong 3yo C&G Mdn-Sw November 14 over 6f defeating Tsavo carrying 128lbs at $1.30. Going the right way and can measure up. 3rd Pick 2 Regeneration Jockey: Lachlan Neindorf Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman J: Lachlan Neindorf T: Anthony & Sam Freedman	147	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Third-up today. First-up raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 8 at Sale Mdn-Sw on October 26 over 6f, on a slow track, neck behind Whiskey Joe carrying 126lbs at $2.70. Second-up favourite, won by 1.0 len at Geelong 3yo C&G Mdn-Sw November 14 over 6f defeating Tsavo carrying 128lbs at $1.30. Going the right way and can measure up.

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