AU - Caulfield - Race 2

Thoroughbred

15 Runners

9.9f

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 6

57.9K

VIEW

Verdict

SIMURGH (13) looks hard to beat having run very well at his Australian debut, charging home for second at Pakenham to grab second over 1m. Straight to 1 ¼m suits this lightly raced import and he draws well for Williams on 119lbs. DREAMS COME TRUE (5) is the danger. Two runs back at 1m have been good, looking in need of more ground last time which she gets here. She'll be charging home late third up. AUTUMN SLIDE (11) has placed in her past couple, getting too far back at Caulfield Heath last time over 1 ?m when flying late to miss by a nose. She'll need a bit of luck but is going well. XTRA RUSH (4) continues to race well, coming back from 1 ?/16m here. He's still relatively lightly raced and should take catching back in trip. A DIVA (15) was just fair as favourite last time but up in trip can suit now, each way hope.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
13	Second run back. First-up after seven months 2nd of 11 at Pakenham Bm70 on April 23 over 1m, 1.0 len behind Factcheck carrying 128lbs at $6. Previously second-up won by 3 len at Curragh Mdn Sw September 27 over 1 ¼m defeating Portnahapple with 131lbs at $3.50. Great return and looks set to go on with it. 1st Pick 13 Simurgh Jockey: Craig Williams Trainer: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes J: Craig Williams T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes	112	-	-	-	34%	2/1
Analysis Second run back. First-up after seven months 2nd of 11 at Pakenham Bm70 on April 23 over 1m, 1.0 len behind Factcheck carrying 128lbs at $6. Previously second-up won by 3 len at Curragh Mdn Sw September 27 over 1 ¼m defeating Portnahapple with 131lbs at $3.50. Great return and looks set to go on with it.
5	Dual acceptor. Third-up today. First-up 2nd of 10 at Warwick Farm Bm78 on March 11 over 1m, on a slow track, head behind Fiddlers Green carrying 127lbs at $11. Second-up 3rd of 12 at Warwick Farm Bm78 on April 15 over 1m, 4.5 len behind Fiddlers Green carrying 129lbs at $8. Peaks now up in trip and should go close. 2nd Pick 5 Dreams Come True Jockey: Beau Mertens Trainer: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr J: Beau Mertens T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr	126	-	-	-	11%	17/2
Analysis Dual acceptor. Third-up today. First-up 2nd of 10 at Warwick Farm Bm78 on March 11 over 1m, on a slow track, head behind Fiddlers Green carrying 127lbs at $11. Second-up 3rd of 12 at Warwick Farm Bm78 on April 15 over 1m, 4.5 len behind Fiddlers Green carrying 129lbs at $8. Peaks now up in trip and should go close.
11	Dual acceptor. Recent form sound. At the latest run 2nd of 8 at Caulfield Heath Bm66 on April 29 over 1m, nose behind Pula with 129lbs at $4.40. The start before that 3rd of 7 at this track F&M Bm78 on April 4 over 1m, 2.25 len behind Terilee carrying 125lbs at $10. Sets up to peak from the low gate. 3rd Pick 11 Autumn Slide Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Simon Zahra J: Non Runner T: Simon Zahra	75	-	-	-	1%	1000/1
Analysis Dual acceptor. Recent form sound. At the latest run 2nd of 8 at Caulfield Heath Bm66 on April 29 over 1m, nose behind Pula with 129lbs at $4.40. The start before that 3rd of 7 at this track F&M Bm78 on April 4 over 1m, 2.25 len behind Terilee carrying 125lbs at $10. Sets up to peak from the low gate.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Yielding

A rain-soaked turf condition often producing a slick or heavy course and slower finish times.

Overlay

A horse going off at higher odds than his recent efforts show that he deserves.

Allowance Race

A race with non-claiming conditions set by the racing secretary. They are meant to be a step down from stakes racing.