AU - Caulfield - Race 10

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

OPEN

Turf

GOOD 4

208.8K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

Tricky mare's race to finish. GOLD MEDALLIST (9) looks a fair price in early betting. She's bursting to win one of these, just finding one better in the G2 Rose Of Kingston at Flemington last time. Can see her getting a decent run just off the pace and proving hard to beat. Not sure what to do with CONCORD CONNIE (12) who was beaten in a BM78 at Mornington first up at $1.30. She'd looked a star last preparation but it was in 3yo company and the draw here certainly isn't ideal. Respecting her upside but sub $2.50 in early betting is enough to look elsewhere. SHADHAVAR (4) has been solid her past two since a good win over Persian Spirit here. Up to 7f is okay without being a positive. WROTE TO ARATAKI (2) was too bad to be true on the heavy at Flemington when five weeks between runs. She's getting on but a huge price as a previous winner of this race. BUTTERNUT PRINCESS (11) has had no luck her past two, can see the map looking sticky again though.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
9	Last start made ground from midfield, 2nd of 11 in the G2 Rose Of Kingston Stakes at Flemington on October 3 over 7f, on heavy track, 0.5 len behind Stylish with 121lbs at $7.50. The race before that raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 5th of 12 in the G2 Let's Elope Stakes at Flemington on September 12 over 7f, 1.5 len behind Pondalowie with 121lbs at $18. Knocking on the door and should go close. 1st Pick 9 Gold Medallist Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman J: Non Runner T: Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman	138	-	-	-	12%	Scratched
Analysis Last start made ground from midfield, 2nd of 11 in the G2 Rose Of Kingston Stakes at Flemington on October 3 over 7f, on heavy track, 0.5 len behind Stylish with 121lbs at $7.50. The race before that raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 5th of 12 in the G2 Let's Elope Stakes at Flemington on September 12 over 7f, 1.5 len behind Pondalowie with 121lbs at $18. Knocking on the door and should go close.
12	Second run back. First-up after four months sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 7 in a Mares Bm78 at Mornington on September 26 over 6f, on a slow track, nose behind Per Sempre carrying 130lbs at $1.30. Previously second-up favourite, won by 6 len in a 3yo F Hcp at Flemington on April 25 over 7f defeating Two To Tango carrying 125lbs at $3.60. Beaten in easier fresh but is better than that and can improve sharply. 2nd Pick 12 Concord Connie Jockey: Jett Stanley Trainer: Charlotte Littlefield J: Jett Stanley T: Charlotte Littlefield	122	-	-	-	37%	7/4
Analysis Second run back. First-up after four months sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 7 in a Mares Bm78 at Mornington on September 26 over 6f, on a slow track, nose behind Per Sempre carrying 130lbs at $1.30. Previously second-up favourite, won by 6 len in a 3yo F Hcp at Flemington on April 25 over 7f defeating Two To Tango carrying 125lbs at $3.60. Beaten in easier fresh but is better than that and can improve sharply.
4	Form hard to fault. Most recently 2nd of 13 in a Hcp at Murray Bridge on October 3 over 6f, on a slow track, 0.7 len behind The Stalker with 131lbs at $4. The start before that 4th of 12 in the G3 Courtza (WW Cockram) Stakes at this track on August 29 over 6f, slow going 3 len behind Custom with 126lbs at $2.25. Made headway last time. Should get a good run and take some catching. 3rd Pick 4 Shadhavar Jockey: Craig Williams Trainer: Tom Dabernig J: Craig Williams T: Tom Dabernig	166	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Form hard to fault. Most recently 2nd of 13 in a Hcp at Murray Bridge on October 3 over 6f, on a slow track, 0.7 len behind The Stalker with 131lbs at $4. The start before that 4th of 12 in the G3 Courtza (WW Cockram) Stakes at this track on August 29 over 6f, slow going 3 len behind Custom with 126lbs at $2.25. Made headway last time. Should get a good run and take some catching.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Morning Line

An approximation of expected odds in a race, quoted before actual odds are determined.

Sloppy

A wet racetrack condition, typically with a firm base and water settling on top.

Mare

A female horse of five years or more.