AU - Ballarat - Race 8

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

10.1f

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

19.2K

VIEW

Verdict

CONVO (10) is finding it hard to win, but it's hard to fault the form this preparation. She's had six starts and hasn't finished further back than fifth, which was last start in 66 grade. Drops back to 62 company here, draws well and regains John Allen, who had a good association with her mum Kenedna. LE TROISIR (1) was below his best last time out when beaten 4.5 lengths over 1 ¼m at Pakenham. Better for the run at that trip though and should be ready to fire fourth-up. MOZU MARCASSIN (2) is another who's racing well but struggling to break through and while he's got out beyond this trip already this prep, the blinkers go on here which could sharpen him up. PROSHOW (3) finished third last start over 1m at Sale when he worked home well, beaten 7 lengths. This is the right race and can find winning form.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
10	Last start 5th of 9 at Cranbourne Bm66 on February 27 over 1 ¼m, 4 len behind Bergasun with 117lbs at $5. The race before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 12 at Pakenham 0 - 62 on February 19 over 1 ¼m, 2.5 len behind Mickidabeel carrying 126lbs at $7. Has contested some stronger races than this of late and is performing well. 1st Pick 10 Convo Jockey: John Allen Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: John Allen T: Ciaron Maher	85	-	-	-	19%
Analysis Last start 5th of 9 at Cranbourne Bm66 on February 27 over 1 ¼m, 4 len behind Bergasun with 117lbs at $5. The race before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 12 at Pakenham 0 - 62 on February 19 over 1 ¼m, 2.5 len behind Mickidabeel carrying 126lbs at $7. Has contested some stronger races than this of late and is performing well.
1	Last start settled back and ran on when 8th of 11 at Pakenham 0-66 on March 6 over 1 ¼m, 4.5 len behind Mr Bannock carrying 129lbs at $9. The race before that second last in a small field at Canterbury 3&4yo Bm64 on February 20 over 7 ¾f, 2 len behind Throttle Response with 134lbs at $5. Sticky draw but should be ready now fourth up with the benefit of a run at 1 ¼m. 2nd Pick 1 Le Troisir Jockey: Harry Coffey Trainer: Chris Waller J: Harry Coffey T: Chris Waller	142	-	-	-	23%
Analysis Last start settled back and ran on when 8th of 11 at Pakenham 0-66 on March 6 over 1 ¼m, 4.5 len behind Mr Bannock carrying 129lbs at $9. The race before that second last in a small field at Canterbury 3&4yo Bm64 on February 20 over 7 ¾f, 2 len behind Throttle Response with 134lbs at $5. Sticky draw but should be ready now fourth up with the benefit of a run at 1 ¼m.
2	Most recently led to the turn then faded 6th of 11 at Pakenham 0-66 on March 6 over 1 ¼m, 4 len behind Mr Bannock carrying 129lbs at $16. The race before that 2nd in a small field at Cranbourne Bm74 on February 13 over 1m, 1.3 len behind Urban Outlook carrying 121lbs at $3.10. Has had a fruitful campaign and the blinkers might provide the sharpness required at this trip. 3rd Pick 2 Mozu Marcassin Jockey: Eoin Walsh Trainer: Matt Cumani J: Eoin Walsh T: Matt Cumani	125	-	-	-	19%
Analysis Most recently led to the turn then faded 6th of 11 at Pakenham 0-66 on March 6 over 1 ¼m, 4 len behind Mr Bannock carrying 129lbs at $16. The race before that 2nd in a small field at Cranbourne Bm74 on February 13 over 1m, 1.3 len behind Urban Outlook carrying 121lbs at $3.10. Has had a fruitful campaign and the blinkers might provide the sharpness required at this trip.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Bolt

A sudden veering to the inside or outside rail, often caused by the horse spooking or shying from something.

Maiden Race

A race exclusively for horses who have not previously won.

Bug

An apprentice jockey.