AU - Ballarat - Race 8

Thoroughbred

20 Runners

OPEN

Turf

GOOD 4

71.3K

VIEW

Verdict

On to our feature of the day with some good milers for the Gold Nugget. Siding with AL DUCA (2) who was effectively first up at Caulfield over 7f off a let-up and just battled after racing very wide throughout. His form over this trip reads well and he gets the golden switch to barrier one. PRINCE ERIC (13) won well from the back at Caulfield two back before an even effort last time. Off a let-up and back to a mile looks okay. TEN COMMANDMENTS (6) continues to race very well. Likely finds a fast deck here which is a query but he's hard to ignore. CRAIG (3) is capable of better than he has shown of late, including a last start seventh at Caulfield. Fitter third-up and could improve into a place.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
2	At the latest run 8th of 12 in a Bm100 at Caulfield on August 29 over 7f, on a slow track, 7 len behind Fancify carrying 131lbs at $18. The race before that raced behind the speed prior to fading 8th of 13 in the LR VRC Winter Championship Final at Flemington on July 4 over 1m, on a slow track, 5 len behind Detonator Jack carrying 127lbs at $2.80. Best form reads well for this. 1st Pick 2 Al Duca Jockey: Damian Lane Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman J: Damian Lane T: Anthony & Sam Freedman	194	-	-	-	39%
Analysis At the latest run 8th of 12 in a Bm100 at Caulfield on August 29 over 7f, on a slow track, 7 len behind Fancify carrying 131lbs at $18. The race before that raced behind the speed prior to fading 8th of 13 in the LR VRC Winter Championship Final at Flemington on July 4 over 1m, on a slow track, 5 len behind Detonator Jack carrying 127lbs at $2.80. Best form reads well for this.
1	Racing well recently. Comes here off a 34-day let-up. Most recently made ground from midfield, 2nd of 8 in a Bm100 at Caulfield on August 15 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Darkbonee with 130lbs at $8. The start before that 2nd of 10 in a Bm100 at Caulfield Heath on August 8 over 1m, slow going long-neck behind First Chorus with 131lbs at $18. Racing well and will be charging home. 2nd Pick 1 Detonator Jack Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: Non Runner T: Ciaron Maher	165	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis Racing well recently. Comes here off a 34-day let-up. Most recently made ground from midfield, 2nd of 8 in a Bm100 at Caulfield on August 15 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Darkbonee with 130lbs at $8. The start before that 2nd of 10 in a Bm100 at Caulfield Heath on August 8 over 1m, slow going long-neck behind First Chorus with 131lbs at $18. Racing well and will be charging home.
13	Returns from a 55-day let-up. Most recently 9th of 14 in a Bm84 at Caulfield on July 25 over 1 ¼m, slow going 6 len behind Amleto with 129lbs at $11. The race before that won by 0.5 len in a Bm84 at Caulfield on July 11 over 1 ¼m on a soft track defeating Amleto carrying 120lbs at $7.50. Can bounce back. 3rd Pick 13 Prince Eric Jockey: Declan Bates Trainer: Archie Alexander J: Declan Bates T: Archie Alexander	105	-	-	-	10%
Analysis Returns from a 55-day let-up. Most recently 9th of 14 in a Bm84 at Caulfield on July 25 over 1 ¼m, slow going 6 len behind Amleto with 129lbs at $11. The race before that won by 0.5 len in a Bm84 at Caulfield on July 11 over 1 ¼m on a soft track defeating Amleto carrying 120lbs at $7.50. Can bounce back.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Sloppy

A wet racetrack condition, typically with a firm base and water settling on top.

Workout

A workout is a timed sprint over varying distances prior to a race, meant to get a horse fit enough for competition.