AU - Ballarat - Race 1

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

Maiden

Turf

HEAVY 8

22.5K

VIEW

Verdict

FORBIDDEN DESIRE (11) is lining up for start No 5 and it is only the second non-metro race she has been in. Probably a little bit outclassed last start in Saturday grade, but was beaten only 1-3/4 lengths on the Caulfield Heath track the start prior and should be at peak fitness now. Deserves to be considered the testing material despite the wide draw. Also drawn out is ATELLA MISS (8), who is a lightly-raced 4YO but seemingly close to a win going off the good first-up run, which followed some nice trials. IBERIAN LYNX (2) is beautifully related, being out of a daughter of Black Caviar, and while he has had his chances to post a win before now, he's yet to run a poor race in five starts and has been trialling nicely. Speaking of trialling well, FILIGREE SHADOW (9) looked like a smooth mover in a recent Flemington jumpout win. YUKI (7) is a Godolphin colt who's taken some time to get the races and will be better for this outing, but looks to have some talent.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
11	Last start 5th of 13 at Sandown-Hillside 2yo F Hcp on May 23 over 5f, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Divine Dot carrying 122lbs at $14. Before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 5th of 10 at Caulfield Heath 2yo Hcp on April 29 over 5f, 1.75 len behind Rubare carrying 120lbs at $7.50. This much easier than recent assignments. 1st Pick 11 Forbidden Desire Jockey: Jye Mcneil Trainer: Lloyd Kennewell J: Jye Mcneil T: Lloyd Kennewell	193	-	-	-	34%
Analysis Last start 5th of 13 at Sandown-Hillside 2yo F Hcp on May 23 over 5f, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Divine Dot carrying 122lbs at $14. Before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 5th of 10 at Caulfield Heath 2yo Hcp on April 29 over 5f, 1.75 len behind Rubare carrying 120lbs at $7.50. This much easier than recent assignments.
8	Having second run back today. Last run tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 10 at Moe Mdn-Sw on May 28 over 6f, on rain affected going, 1.5 len behind Anglesea with 127lbs at $3.10. At only start last preparation sat on the speed throughout before fading to run last of 8 at Sandown-Lakeside 3yo Mdn on April 9 2025 over 6f, 4.5 len behind Santa Ana Moon with 123lbs at $4. Drawn awkwardly, but better for the good first-up run. 2nd Pick 8 Atella Miss Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse Trainer: Matt Laurie J: Daniel Stackhouse T: Matt Laurie	111	-	-	-	19%
Analysis Having second run back today. Last run tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 10 at Moe Mdn-Sw on May 28 over 6f, on rain affected going, 1.5 len behind Anglesea with 127lbs at $3.10. At only start last preparation sat on the speed throughout before fading to run last of 8 at Sandown-Lakeside 3yo Mdn on April 9 2025 over 6f, 4.5 len behind Santa Ana Moon with 123lbs at $4. Drawn awkwardly, but better for the good first-up run.
2	Gelding back from a spell of seven months. Has placed previously first up from a break. Finished off last preparation third of 7 at Warrnambool Mdn-Sw November 11 over 6f, soft track, 4.5 len behind Lantana with 131lbs at $2.90. When resuming last campaign second of 7 at Geelong Mdn-Sw October 2 over 5 ¾f, soft track, a head behind Live with 131lbs at $3. Consistent gelding out of a daughter of Black Caviar and strikes the right race to run well first up. 3rd Pick 2 Iberian Lynx Jockey: Beau Mertens Trainer: M, W & J Hawkes J: Beau Mertens T: M, W & J Hawkes	147	-	-	-	23%
Analysis Gelding back from a spell of seven months. Has placed previously first up from a break. Finished off last preparation third of 7 at Warrnambool Mdn-Sw November 11 over 6f, soft track, 4.5 len behind Lantana with 131lbs at $2.90. When resuming last campaign second of 7 at Geelong Mdn-Sw October 2 over 5 ¾f, soft track, a head behind Live with 131lbs at $3. Consistent gelding out of a daughter of Black Caviar and strikes the right race to run well first up.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Bobble/Stumble

A slip or a duck from a horse trying to leave the starting gates, often caused by the surface giving way under the feet. This can range from a mild misstep to a stumble down to their knees.

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.

Bug

An apprentice jockey.