AU - Bairnsdale - Race 5

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

10.9f

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

15.6K

VIEW

Verdict

NAJLE (5) is a lightly tried 6YO mare who is fresh up over 1 ?m, which suggests that she has been kept in work over the winter months. She is nicely placed in this limited field, and is capable of taking this out at some nice value. ABERLUTELY (8) has improved since being tried on pace, and she fought on gamely when finishing third as the favourite at Mildura just over 2 weeks ago. The visors are added, and they may work the oracle, so follow your money. PRO VELOCITY (6) was much more like it when finishing third at Kilmore last week, and she only has to run up to that form again, to be a big threat in this. JUST DANCE (2) bounced back into form when finishing runner-up by less than a length at Moe 12 days ago, and if he can hold his place from another good draw, then he is right up to going one better here. LUCKYHELEFT (1) is a durable veteran with a good record on this track, and his form has been near enough from a run of bad draws. Stick with him on an each-way basis.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
5	Resuming. Finished off last preparation fourth of 9 at Moe Bm56 May 12 over 1 ¼m, soft track, 9 len behind One Brother with 129lbs at $6.50. Previously first up, second last of 7 at Pakenham 0 - 62 April 2 over 1m, 4.5 len behind Pray Day carrying 123lbs at $71. Can take this fresh up. 1st Pick 5 Najle Jockey: Jake Noonan Trainer: Emma-Lee & David Browne J: Jake Noonan T: Emma-Lee & David Browne	65	-	-	-	6%
Analysis Resuming. Finished off last preparation fourth of 9 at Moe Bm56 May 12 over 1 ¼m, soft track, 9 len behind One Brother with 129lbs at $6.50. Previously first up, second last of 7 at Pakenham 0 - 62 April 2 over 1m, 4.5 len behind Pray Day carrying 123lbs at $71. Can take this fresh up.
8	Form hard to fault. Most recently rolled along in front before being edged out 3rd of 11 in a Bm56 at Mildura on September 5 over 1 ¼m, on a slow track, 2 len behind Intuitu with 126lbs at $2.70. The race before that led but faded 2nd of 10 in a Bm56 at Moe on August 13 over 1 ¼m, on heavy track, 1.5 len behind Outdrive with 125lbs at $4.80. Not far away of late. Can play a role in the outcome. 2nd Pick 8 Aberlutely Jockey: Craig Newitt Trainer: Pat Carey & Harris Walker J: Craig Newitt T: Pat Carey & Harris Walker	81	-	-	-	42%
Analysis Form hard to fault. Most recently rolled along in front before being edged out 3rd of 11 in a Bm56 at Mildura on September 5 over 1 ¼m, on a slow track, 2 len behind Intuitu with 126lbs at $2.70. The race before that led but faded 2nd of 10 in a Bm56 at Moe on August 13 over 1 ¼m, on heavy track, 1.5 len behind Outdrive with 125lbs at $4.80. Not far away of late. Can play a role in the outcome.
6	Last start 2nd of 12 in a 0 - 56 at Kilmore on September 13 over 1 ¼m, 3.5 len behind Makusha carrying 128lbs at $8.50. Before that 9th of 12 in a Bm56 at Wangaratta on August 23 over 1 ¼m, slow going 10 len behind Azeola carrying 129lbs at $12. Further improvement is anticipated. 3rd Pick 6 Pro Velocity Jockey: Luke Cartwright Trainer: Reece Goodwin J: Luke Cartwright T: Reece Goodwin	135	-	-	-	34%
Analysis Last start 2nd of 12 in a 0 - 56 at Kilmore on September 13 over 1 ¼m, 3.5 len behind Makusha carrying 128lbs at $8.50. Before that 9th of 12 in a Bm56 at Wangaratta on August 23 over 1 ¼m, slow going 10 len behind Azeola carrying 129lbs at $12. Further improvement is anticipated.

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