AU - Bairnsdale - Race 4

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

15.6K

VIEW

Verdict

ALPINOVA (11) has been mixing her form, and has also not won for some time, but she meets the right sort of field here, and returning to her pet trip, can bring about a better effort in this. On top for us. ELLY DEE (7) is a durable veteran mare who raced her way into form with a solid effort for third at Geelong last time out. She has a superior draw this time, and will only improve again with more racing. Stick with her. TANANA (9) will be peaking at the right time for this, and he last couple of starts at Moe have been solid enough on heavy tracks. A firmer surface would help her, and she can take this out. PUNIC WAR (3) is getting fitter with each run back from a spell, and he is nicely placed to figure in the top 4 here, in what looks like a very even contest. MONT SAINT MICHEL (2) has winning form here over the distance, and he drops down in class from his last start for seventh at Mornington 16 days ago. Can win.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
11	At the latest run 9th of 13 in a 0 - 56 at Kilmore on September 13 over 5 ½f, 3.5 len behind Fortyfour Magnum with 123lbs at $5.50. The run before that ran on strongly from last on the turn, 2nd of 9 in a 0-56 at Geelong on August 28 over 6 ¼f, on a slow track, 1.0 len behind Ranakye with 122lbs at $31. Is good enough to take this out. 1st Pick 11 Alpinova Jockey: Melea Castle Trainer: Brooke Verwey-Mitchell J: Melea Castle T: Brooke Verwey-Mitchell	84	-	-	-	17%
Analysis At the latest run 9th of 13 in a 0 - 56 at Kilmore on September 13 over 5 ½f, 3.5 len behind Fortyfour Magnum with 123lbs at $5.50. The run before that ran on strongly from last on the turn, 2nd of 9 in a 0-56 at Geelong on August 28 over 6 ¼f, on a slow track, 1.0 len behind Ranakye with 122lbs at $31. Is good enough to take this out.
7	At the latest run sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 9 in a 0-56 at Geelong on August 28 over 6 ¼f, slow going 4 len behind Ranakye with 127lbs at $18. The start before that 6th of 10 in a 0-56 at Sale on August 21 over 5 ½f, on a slow track, 2.5 len behind A Penny Spent carrying 123lbs at $10. Can improve again. Going well and looks a leading chance. 2nd Pick 7 Elly Dee Jockey: Mitchell Aitken Trainer: Troy Kilgower J: Mitchell Aitken T: Troy Kilgower	115	-	-	-	12%
Analysis At the latest run sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 9 in a 0-56 at Geelong on August 28 over 6 ¼f, slow going 4 len behind Ranakye with 127lbs at $18. The start before that 6th of 10 in a 0-56 at Sale on August 21 over 5 ½f, on a slow track, 2.5 len behind A Penny Spent carrying 123lbs at $10. Can improve again. Going well and looks a leading chance.
9	Comes here off a 38-day let-up. Last start 4th of 11 in a Bm56 at Moe on August 13 over 6f, in the wet, 7 len behind Magic Drum with 120lbs at $15. Before that 3rd of 10 in a Bm62 at Moe on July 21 over 6f, on heavy track, 3.5 len behind Struggle Street carrying 120lbs at $21. Looks tested again this line-up. 3rd Pick 9 Tanana Jockey: Aaron Sweeney Trainer: Rebecca Kelly J: Aaron Sweeney T: Rebecca Kelly	80	-	-	-	4%
Analysis Comes here off a 38-day let-up. Last start 4th of 11 in a Bm56 at Moe on August 13 over 6f, in the wet, 7 len behind Magic Drum with 120lbs at $15. Before that 3rd of 10 in a Bm62 at Moe on July 21 over 6f, on heavy track, 3.5 len behind Struggle Street carrying 120lbs at $21. Looks tested again this line-up.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Lasix

A medication for the treatment of bleeding in horses that is legal in North America, but not all worldwide jurisdictions.

Main Track Only

A horse entered for main track only (MTO) is one hoping the weather forecast or track conditions will move the race off the turf course and onto the main track. They are scratched the morning of the race if the conditions stay dry.

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A race exclusively for horses who have not previously won.