AU - Bairnsdale - Race 4

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

HEAVY 8

14.1K

VIEW

Verdict

PRESERVATOR (1) doesn't win out of turn but ran a strong race last time when beaten a long neck into third over 1m at Werribee. This looks an ideal race and he draws perfectly in barrier three. Go close. VEGAS ON FIRE (3) pushed forward when resuming last time and boxed on to finish 3.5 lengths away in third over 7 ¼f at Kilmore. Fitter and should take catching. MASTER POLANSKI (7) went back early from his wide draw over 7 ½f at Mornington last time but hit the line strongly to finish fourth. Should be hard to hold out despite a wide gate. FOGGY BOTTOM (4) doesn't win many but was close up last time and is in the mix.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	At the latest run 3rd of 13 at Werribee 0 - 56 on May 30 over 1m, on a slow track, long-neck behind Kawa with 131lbs at $3.90. The run before that faded in the straight 8th of 12 at Pakenham Bm62 Hcp on May 22 over 1m, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Pearl King carrying 126lbs at $61. Sets up well to break through. 1st Pick 1 Preservator Jockey: Jason Maskiell Trainer: K J Fythe J: Jason Maskiell T: K J Fythe	166	-	-	-	46%
Analysis At the latest run 3rd of 13 at Werribee 0 - 56 on May 30 over 1m, on a slow track, long-neck behind Kawa with 131lbs at $3.90. The run before that faded in the straight 8th of 12 at Pakenham Bm62 Hcp on May 22 over 1m, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Pearl King carrying 126lbs at $61. Sets up well to break through.
3	Second run back. Comes off a 39-day let-up. First-up after six months set the pace for much of the race 3rd of 9 at Kilmore Bm56 on May 4 over 7 ¼f, on rain affected going, 3.5 len behind Super Paradise with 126lbs at $4.20. Previously second-up ran last of 13 at Werribee Bm58 on May 16 2025 over 1m, 18 len behind Clavel with 132lbs at $10. Can improve and looks a strong hope. 2nd Pick 3 Vegas On Fire Jockey: Olivia East Trainer: Shawn Mathrick J: Olivia East T: Shawn Mathrick	106	-	-	-	25%
Analysis Second run back. Comes off a 39-day let-up. First-up after six months set the pace for much of the race 3rd of 9 at Kilmore Bm56 on May 4 over 7 ¼f, on rain affected going, 3.5 len behind Super Paradise with 126lbs at $4.20. Previously second-up ran last of 13 at Werribee Bm58 on May 16 2025 over 1m, 18 len behind Clavel with 132lbs at $10. Can improve and looks a strong hope.
2	Comes off a 40 day let-up. At the latest run 8th of 14 at Wangaratta 0 - 56 on May 3 over 1m, slow going 7 len behind Pharoah's Daughter carrying 129lbs at $5. The race before that struggled in the run home, 7th of 11 at Kilmore 0 - 56 on April 18 over 1 ¼m, 6 len behind Real Intrigue carrying 130lbs at $5.50. Can bounce back. 3rd Pick 2 Ex Machina Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Paul & Tracey Templeton J: Non Runner T: Paul & Tracey Templeton	70	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis Comes off a 40 day let-up. At the latest run 8th of 14 at Wangaratta 0 - 56 on May 3 over 1m, slow going 7 len behind Pharoah's Daughter carrying 129lbs at $5. The race before that struggled in the run home, 7th of 11 at Kilmore 0 - 56 on April 18 over 1 ¼m, 6 len behind Real Intrigue carrying 130lbs at $5.50. Can bounce back.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Overlay

A horse going off at higher odds than his recent efforts show that he deserves.

Allowance Race

A race with non-claiming conditions set by the racing secretary. They are meant to be a step down from stakes racing.

Maiden Race

A race exclusively for horses who have not previously won.