AU - Ararat - Race 5

Thoroughbred

17 Runners

6.5f

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

15.4K

VIEW

Verdict

PORT LOUIS (1) has been racing in stronger and just missed in a 68 at Mt Gambier last time. Carries more weight but this is winnable with average luck in the run. MANCHEGO (2) drops back to a sprint but expect him to manage. He'd threatened twice over a mile before the latest and Kersley is a positive jockey engagement. SMART RETURN (8) peaks and is knocking on the door. tackled a 66 at Penola last time and he should appreciate the longer sprint. Can feature with average luck. BLACK CHERRY (6) won fresh and was in season last time. Has a cruel gate but her best would see her very competitive.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
1	Most recently came home strongly from last on the turn, 2nd of 8 at Mt Gambier Bm68 on January 25 over 6f, 0.9 len behind Allinthetiming carrying 119lbs at $8.50. The start before that got back early 8th of 10 at Camperdown Camp Cup on January 17 over 1m, 5.5 len behind Mister Me with 119lbs at $91. In form and will be the hardest to beat. 1st Pick 1 Port Louis Jockey: Will Gordon Trainer: Denis Daffy & Harriet Place J: Will Gordon T: Denis Daffy & Harriet Place	173	-	-	-	29%
Analysis Most recently came home strongly from last on the turn, 2nd of 8 at Mt Gambier Bm68 on January 25 over 6f, 0.9 len behind Allinthetiming carrying 119lbs at $8.50. The start before that got back early 8th of 10 at Camperdown Camp Cup on January 17 over 1m, 5.5 len behind Mister Me with 119lbs at $91. In form and will be the hardest to beat.
2	Most recently 6th of 8 at Great Western 0 - 56 on January 24 over 1 ³/16m, 4.5 len behind Littlebitcheeky carrying 132lbs at $8. The start before that 4th of 12 at Stawell 0 - 56 on January 4 over 1m, 1.5 len behind Drink Then Kiss with 132lbs at $6.50. Rates highly and can run an improved race. 2nd Pick 2 Manchego Jockey: Fred W Kersley Trainer: Matt Cumani J: Fred W Kersley T: Matt Cumani	116	-	-	-	29%
Analysis Most recently 6th of 8 at Great Western 0 - 56 on January 24 over 1 ³/16m, 4.5 len behind Littlebitcheeky carrying 132lbs at $8. The start before that 4th of 12 at Stawell 0 - 56 on January 4 over 1m, 1.5 len behind Drink Then Kiss with 132lbs at $6.50. Rates highly and can run an improved race.
8	At the latest run 6th of 8 at Penola Bm66 on January 16 over 5f, 3 len behind Santastico with 117lbs at $5. The start before that ran on from midfield, 3rd of 10 at Colac Bm56 on January 6 over 6f, 1.75 len behind Mont Saint Michel with 126lbs at $7. Strong contender on best form. 3rd Pick 8 Smart Return Jockey: Jordyn Weatherley Trainer: Tom Dabernig J: Jordyn Weatherley T: Tom Dabernig	105	-	-	-	23%
Analysis At the latest run 6th of 8 at Penola Bm66 on January 16 over 5f, 3 len behind Santastico with 117lbs at $5. The start before that ran on from midfield, 3rd of 10 at Colac Bm56 on January 6 over 6f, 1.75 len behind Mont Saint Michel with 126lbs at $7. Strong contender on best form.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Starter Race

An allowance race restricted to horses who have started for a certain claiming price recently.

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Betting on a horse to finish in the first three spots, which pays out the same whether they win or run second or third.

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A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.