NZ - Otaki - Race 3

Thoroughbred

10 Runners

Maiden

Turf

SOFT 6

14.6K

VIEW

Verdict

KODIAC BEAR (4) was not far away here nearly 4 weeks ago, and was runner-up at Woodville when making his debut before that. The tongue tie goes on, and he is a quick improver. Stick with him. SLOSHED (5) has been freshened up after failing to cop a heavy track at Trentham in October. He has trialled since then, and a firmer surface will suit him. A good draw helps, and he can figure in the top 4 here. CREMANT (8) was well supported on debut at Tauherenikau, but raced greenly and failed to run on. She has the pole position now and is worth another chance in this field. RIOMOSA (1) dug deep when running into third at Trentham 12 days ago. That was his first placing on a good track, and he can go on with the job now. Each way. DERRICK (2) has been showing promise at the trials and has picked the right race to make her debut. Check the market moves.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
4	Had two starts to date. When well in the market at debut, 2nd in a small field at Woodville on November 2 over 6f, slow going 0.8 len behind Our Sniper with 127lbs at $3.60. Last start 7th of 12 at this track on November 30 over 6f, 4 len behind Hoorah Henry carrying 126lbs at $6.30. Can bounce back. 1st Pick 4 Kodiac Bear Jockey: Bruno Queiroz Trainer: Kevin & Stephen Gray, Copper Belt Lodge J: Bruno Queiroz T: Kevin & Stephen Gray, Copper Belt Lodge	136	-	-	-	34%	2/1
Analysis Had two starts to date. When well in the market at debut, 2nd in a small field at Woodville on November 2 over 6f, slow going 0.8 len behind Our Sniper with 127lbs at $3.60. Last start 7th of 12 at this track on November 30 over 6f, 4 len behind Hoorah Henry carrying 126lbs at $6.30. Can bounce back.
5	Resuming. Not seen since he finished last in a small field at Trentham October 18 over 6f, on heavy track, 27 len behind Yamal carrying 127lbs at $5.60. On debut ran last in a small field at this track September 6 over 6f, on rain affected going, 15 len behind My Ferrari carrying 127lbs at $1.60. Everything points to a effective return. 2nd Pick 5 Sloshed Jockey: Kelly Myers Trainer: Kevin & Stephen Gray, Copper Belt Lodge J: Kelly Myers T: Kevin & Stephen Gray, Copper Belt Lodge	76	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Resuming. Not seen since he finished last in a small field at Trentham October 18 over 6f, on heavy track, 27 len behind Yamal carrying 127lbs at $5.60. On debut ran last in a small field at this track September 6 over 6f, on rain affected going, 15 len behind My Ferrari carrying 127lbs at $1.60. Everything points to a effective return.
8	Was well in the market at debut, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 6th of 9 at Tauherenikau on December 10 over 5f, on a slow track, 10 len behind Falcrests Belle with 121lbs at $4.90. Open to improvement. Expected to be in the finish. 3rd Pick 8 Cremant Jockey: Kate Hercock Trainer: Lisa Latta J: Kate Hercock T: Lisa Latta	65	-	-	-	13%	7/1
Analysis Was well in the market at debut, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 6th of 9 at Tauherenikau on December 10 over 5f, on a slow track, 10 len behind Falcrests Belle with 121lbs at $4.90. Open to improvement. Expected to be in the finish.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Track Bias

The term used to identify which parts of the track or running styles are producing more winners.

Bobble/Stumble

A slip or a duck from a horse trying to leave the starting gates, often caused by the surface giving way under the feet. This can range from a mild misstep to a stumble down to their knees.

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.