GB - Newmarket - Race 1

Thoroughbred

9 Runners

Listed

Turf

Good (Good to Firm in places)

96.0K

VIEW

Verdict

A final chance is given to ARISAIG, who hasn't won since summer 2024 but Charlie Johnston's mare is clearly capable of winning races at this level provided things drop right. Alobayyah was progressive prior to her Haydock blip last month, so she's put forward as the main danger, while Estissa and Gilding The Lily are a couple of progressive 3-y-os who may also be involved at the business end, too.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
2	Hold-up mare who is winless since summer of 2024 but wasn't beaten far when third in 1m Pontefract listed event in early-July. Never involved in Valiant Fillies' Stakes at Ascot last time but she's capable of winning races at this level if things drop right. 1st Pick 2 Arisaig Jockey: Jamie Spencer Trainer: Charlie Johnston J: Jamie Spencer T: Charlie Johnston	100	-	-	-	29%
Analysis Hold-up mare who is winless since summer of 2024 but wasn't beaten far when third in 1m Pontefract listed event in early-July. Never involved in Valiant Fillies' Stakes at Ascot last time but she's capable of winning races at this level if things drop right.
1	More than confirmed her reappearance promise when beating 23 rivals in the Kensington Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot in June but turned in an underwhelming display 7 weeks on when seventh of 10 in listed race at Haydock (1m) last time, needing stronger gallop. Worth another chance. 2nd Pick 1 Alobayyah Jockey: Tom Marquand Trainer: William Haggas J: Tom Marquand T: William Haggas	98	-	-	-	25%
Analysis More than confirmed her reappearance promise when beating 23 rivals in the Kensington Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot in June but turned in an underwhelming display 7 weeks on when seventh of 10 in listed race at Haydock (1m) last time, needing stronger gallop. Worth another chance.
7	Dual winner this year who has acquitted herself well in her previous 3 starts at this level, turning in another good effort under typically waiting tactics when fourth of 13 at Longchamp (1m, good) just over 3 weeks ago, finishing strongly. Remains open to improvement. 3rd Pick 7 Estissa Jockey: Oisin Murphy Trainer: James Fanshawe J: Oisin Murphy T: James Fanshawe	96	-	-	-	19%
Analysis Dual winner this year who has acquitted herself well in her previous 3 starts at this level, turning in another good effort under typically waiting tactics when fourth of 13 at Longchamp (1m, good) just over 3 weeks ago, finishing strongly. Remains open to improvement.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Apprentice

A new jockey who has not ridden a certain number of winners in a specified time period.

Across the Board

Refers to betting on a horse to finish first, second, and third to cover any of those scenarios happening during a race

Main Track Only

A horse entered for main track only (MTO) is one hoping the weather forecast or track conditions will move the race off the turf course and onto the main track. They are scratched the morning of the race if the conditions stay dry.