JP - Nagoya - Race 3

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

7.5f

Unknown

Dirt

6.5K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

AOZORA LUNCH (9) is the clear starting point in a thin 3yo COND contest, not because the recent finishing positions leap off the page, but because her two Niigata runs have been the most competitive of the main hopes, with margins around six lengths in 3yo Maiden company. The concern is that she was unwanted in the market and did not make headway, but the class drop and race fitness give her the strongest overall profile. ACT SURGE (1) resumes after eight months and has to leave a debut flop over 1 ?m well behind, yet the lighter weight and sharp class relief make him a legitimate improver. NEO AMBO (3) has also been safely held this prep, though third-up fitness and a softer assignment keep him in the winning mix if he finds more at 7 ½f. ECORRO GARUDA (12) is more a danger than a top pick, with the rise in trip a query after an 11th over 6f, but this field gives him some place-to-win scope.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
9	Back after five weeks and brings the best recent profile in the race, despite finishing 11th at Niigata over 1m when beaten six lengths by Fuji Sun. She had been 12th there the start prior, beaten just over six lengths by Scene Des Lauves, so the form is not winning form but is stronger than many here. Fourth-up, race fit and dropping in class, she deserves top billing if she can convert the setup. 1st Pick 9 Aozora Lunch Jockey: Takahiro Imai Trainer: Uto Hideki J: Takahiro Imai T: Uto Hideki	168	-	-	-	17%
Analysis Back after five weeks and brings the best recent profile in the race, despite finishing 11th at Niigata over 1m when beaten six lengths by Fuji Sun. She had been 12th there the start prior, beaten just over six lengths by Scene Des Lauves, so the form is not winning form but is stronger than many here. Fourth-up, race fit and dropping in class, she deserves top billing if she can convert the setup.
1	Returns from an eight-month break after a debut run at Nakayama where he finished last in a 3yo Maiden over 1m, beaten out of sight by Edel Seele after conceding a big start. That form plainly has to be improved upon, but he drops in class, comes back to 121lbs and has only had one raceday look. The 7 ½f is a different test, yet this looks a far more suitable race to show whether there is improvement there. 2nd Pick 1 Act Surge Jockey: Kondo Hayato Trainer: Kazuo Fujigasaki J: Kondo Hayato T: Kazuo Fujigasaki	44	-	-	-	4%
Analysis Returns from an eight-month break after a debut run at Nakayama where he finished last in a 3yo Maiden over 1m, beaten out of sight by Edel Seele after conceding a big start. That form plainly has to be improved upon, but he drops in class, comes back to 121lbs and has only had one raceday look. The 7 ½f is a different test, yet this looks a far more suitable race to show whether there is improvement there.
3	Back after a one-month freshening and gets another chance despite being second last at Niigata, beaten eight and a half lengths by Suteki Surprise after giving away too much start. He was also safely held at Fukushima two back when tenth behind Gold Parade, but that run at least showed he could settle closer. Third-up and down in class, he has enough setup to be a winning player if the 7 ½f does not expose him. 3rd Pick 3 Neo Ambo Jockey: Masaaki Ohata Trainer: Nobuyuki Honna J: Masaaki Ohata T: Nobuyuki Honna	72	-	-	-	8%
Analysis Back after a one-month freshening and gets another chance despite being second last at Niigata, beaten eight and a half lengths by Suteki Surprise after giving away too much start. He was also safely held at Fukushima two back when tenth behind Gold Parade, but that run at least showed he could settle closer. Third-up and down in class, he has enough setup to be a winning player if the 7 ½f does not expose him.

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Main Track Only

A horse entered for main track only (MTO) is one hoping the weather forecast or track conditions will move the race off the turf course and onto the main track. They are scratched the morning of the race if the conditions stay dry.

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A pool style wagering system, where all money input through betting is divided among those with winning tickets (save for various deductions by the track operators).