NZ - Matamata - Race 8

Thoroughbred

20 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

HEAVY 8

9.8K

VIEW

Verdict

ELLE MCFAB (3) set the pace fresh up at Ellerslie in BM75 grade and weakened in the run home. She will be spot on second up and looks perfectly placed with the drop in class here. She won her only race here when making her debut on a heavy track, and with Warren Kennedy replacing an apprentice, she is the one to beat. SAVVY DONNA (10) is a very capable filly who will find this much easier than her first 2 starts back from a spell. She only needs some luck from a tricky gate to be hard to beat at this easier level. MARRIAGE VOWS (6) will be peaking fourth up from a spell, and she has steadily improved in each of her 3 starts this prep. If the gaps come at the right time, she can have the last say, especially if the track is heavy. GUIPAGO (4) could not back up his maiden 1 ?m win at his penultimate start when plugging on for seventh over 1 ½m at Te Rapa 2 months ago. A heavy track will bring him right into this at odds. KING WILLIAM (2) might need this, but he is still a chance.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
3	Second-up. First-up after nine months did the work up front then tired 9th of 11 at Ellerslie on May 23 over 7f, slow going 5 len behind Sweet Smile carrying 115lbs at $24.40. Previously second-up 4th of 11 at Te Rapa on July 5 over 7f, on a wet track, 3 len behind Family Folks carrying 126lbs at $7.90. Fitter for that run and expected to be in the finish this time. 1st Pick 3 Elle Mcfab Jockey: Warren Kennedy Trainer: David Greene J: Warren Kennedy T: David Greene	121	-	-	-	16%	11/2
Analysis Second-up. First-up after nine months did the work up front then tired 9th of 11 at Ellerslie on May 23 over 7f, slow going 5 len behind Sweet Smile carrying 115lbs at $24.40. Previously second-up 4th of 11 at Te Rapa on July 5 over 7f, on a wet track, 3 len behind Family Folks carrying 126lbs at $7.90. Fitter for that run and expected to be in the finish this time.
10	Third-up today. Resuming eased back early on 6th of 9 at Arawa Park on May 9 over 7f, on rain affected going, 4.5 len behind Circus Dancer with 121lbs at $10.30. Second run from a spell second last in a small field at Ellerslie on May 23 over 7 ½f, slow going 1.4 len behind Bulgari carrying 121lbs at $7.70. Capable of sharp improvement. 2nd Pick 10 Savvy Donna Jockey: Masahiro Hashizume Trainer: R K Fleming J: Masahiro Hashizume T: R K Fleming	290	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Third-up today. Resuming eased back early on 6th of 9 at Arawa Park on May 9 over 7f, on rain affected going, 4.5 len behind Circus Dancer with 121lbs at $10.30. Second run from a spell second last in a small field at Ellerslie on May 23 over 7 ½f, slow going 1.4 len behind Bulgari carrying 121lbs at $7.70. Capable of sharp improvement.
6	Most recently 5th of 14 at Ellerslie on June 6 over 7 ½f, slow going 3 len behind Andiamo carrying 121lbs at $52.80. Before that 7th of 16 at Ellerslie on May 16 over 7 ½f, slow going 4 len behind Inside Out carrying 122lbs at $28.30. Good effort last start and can build on that performance. 3rd Pick 6 Marriage Vows Jockey: Rihaan Goyaram Trainer: Les Collins J: Rihaan Goyaram T: Les Collins	78	-	-	-	10%	9/1
Analysis Most recently 5th of 14 at Ellerslie on June 6 over 7 ½f, slow going 3 len behind Andiamo carrying 121lbs at $52.80. Before that 7th of 16 at Ellerslie on May 16 over 7 ½f, slow going 4 len behind Inside Out carrying 122lbs at $28.30. Good effort last start and can build on that performance.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Morning Line

An approximation of expected odds in a race, quoted before actual odds are determined.

Allowance Race

A race with non-claiming conditions set by the racing secretary. They are meant to be a step down from stakes racing.

Also Eligible

A horse that is entered but does not draw into the body of the field due to too many entries, and thus is not permitted to start unless there are enough scratches to shrink the field size.