NZ - Matamata - Race 3

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

9.9f

Maiden

Turf

HEAVY 8

14.6K

VIEW

Verdict

BORN TO BE ROYAL (11) is a promising maiden filly who followed up some good form with a game effort for third in the G2 Sir Patrick Hogan Stakes at Ellerslie nearly 3 weeks ago. That form makes her clearly the one to beat in this. UNODOSTRESCUATRO (1) is heading the right way with her form as she steps up in trip. She was beaten by a nose as the favourite at Taupo last time out over 1 ?m, and the extra furlong will only help her more. She is the main danger to the top pick, if there is to be one. RETRO (13) ran the race of an improver when finishing fourth in her first attempt over a middle distance here nearly 5 weeks ago. She cops a tougher gate this time, but she does have the scope to pick up her first win at short notice. SAVINA (12) finished seventh and was not that far behind the top pick in the same G2 race as the top pick. Staying will be her forte, and she can figure in the top 3 here. SUMMER IN LONDON (14) is bred to excel over ground and will be a quick improver.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
11	Recent form sound. Most recently 3rd of 12 at Ellerslie in the G2 Sir Patrick Hogan (Royal) Stakes on January 1 over 1 ¼m, on a slow track, 2.5 len behind Ohope Wins with 125lbs at $14.50. The race before that 2nd of 14 at this track on December 19 over 1m, slow going long-neck behind Los Santos carrying 122lbs at $4.50. Continues to impress and gets her chance to break through. 1st Pick 11 Born To Be Royal Jockey: Craig Grylls Trainer: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson J: Craig Grylls T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson	238	-	-	-	63%
Analysis Recent form sound. Most recently 3rd of 12 at Ellerslie in the G2 Sir Patrick Hogan (Royal) Stakes on January 1 over 1 ¼m, on a slow track, 2.5 len behind Ohope Wins with 125lbs at $14.50. The race before that 2nd of 14 at this track on December 19 over 1m, slow going long-neck behind Los Santos carrying 122lbs at $4.50. Continues to impress and gets her chance to break through.
1	Racing well recently. Most recently held ground to the line 2nd of 13 at Taupo on December 28 over 1m, on a slow track, nose behind Star Warrior with 127lbs at $2.90. The start before that sat on the pace when 3rd of 14 at Pukekohe on December 6 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.5 len behind Dance The Night with 127lbs at $9.90. Narrowly beaten latest and can go one better. 2nd Pick 1 Unodostrescuatro Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Chad Ormsby J: Non Runner T: Chad Ormsby	82	-	-	-	19%	Scratched
Analysis Racing well recently. Most recently held ground to the line 2nd of 13 at Taupo on December 28 over 1m, on a slow track, nose behind Star Warrior with 127lbs at $2.90. The start before that sat on the pace when 3rd of 14 at Pukekohe on December 6 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.5 len behind Dance The Night with 127lbs at $9.90. Narrowly beaten latest and can go one better.
13	Comes here off a 33-day let-up. Last start 4th of 14 at this track on December 19 over 1 ¼m, slow going 3.5 len behind Bharnstorm with 121lbs at $8.20. The run before that 7th of 12 at Ellerslie on December 11 over 1m, on a slow track, 7 len behind Day One carrying 122lbs at $17.20. Hard to beat on her best form. 3rd Pick 13 Retro Jockey: Wiremu Pinn Trainer: Darryn & Briar Weatherley J: Wiremu Pinn T: Darryn & Briar Weatherley	82	-	-	-	15%
Analysis Comes here off a 33-day let-up. Last start 4th of 14 at this track on December 19 over 1 ¼m, slow going 3.5 len behind Bharnstorm with 121lbs at $8.20. The run before that 7th of 12 at Ellerslie on December 11 over 1m, on a slow track, 7 len behind Day One carrying 122lbs at $17.20. Hard to beat on her best form.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.

Morning Line

An approximation of expected odds in a race, quoted before actual odds are determined.

Firm

A dry turf course, equal to a ‘fast’ dirt track.