AU - Wellington - Race 4

Thoroughbred

15 Runners

5.5f

Maiden

Turf

SOFT 5

21.5K

VIEW

Verdict

TAMPA BAY (11) is finding it tough to break through but has efforts littered throughout her form that measure up, including two narrow defeats already this campaign. Doesn't need to improve much off those to be winning this. COSMIC JINKS (14) returned from a spell two weeks ago when she was in contention on the corner before being fading quickly in the run home at Scone. Strips fitter and can play a more significant role with that run under her belt. SHE'S OURVALENTINE (9) was prominent through the early and middle stages but peaked on her run and finished fourth when resuming over 5f at Dubbo last start. Right in the mix. TUCKLAN (13) produced a moderate effort last start at Dubbo but hadn't been too far prior. Peak fitness now and warrants safekeeping.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
11	Last start 5th of 10 in a Super Mdn-Sw at Moree on September 6 over 4 ¾f, 6 len behind Savage Sequel with 126lbs at $10. Before that raced on the pace when 2nd of 10 in a Ctry Mdn at Narromine on August 23 over 5 ½f, on a slow track, head behind Mega Pixel with 123lbs at $3.50. Nicely placed to make amends. 1st Pick 11 Tampa Bay Jockey: Jacob Stiff Trainer: Connie Greig J: Jacob Stiff T: Connie Greig	218	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Last start 5th of 10 in a Super Mdn-Sw at Moree on September 6 over 4 ¾f, 6 len behind Savage Sequel with 126lbs at $10. Before that raced on the pace when 2nd of 10 in a Ctry Mdn at Narromine on August 23 over 5 ½f, on a slow track, head behind Mega Pixel with 123lbs at $3.50. Nicely placed to make amends.
14	Dual acceptor. Second run back. First-up after five months faded in the straight 5th of 9 in a F&M Mdn-Sw at Scone on September 1 over 5 ½f, slow going 6 len behind Alphabet carrying 122lbs at $8. Previously second-up 4th of 11 in a Starmaker at Muswellbrook on March 27 over 5f, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Hellenic Belle with 121lbs at $41. Rates highly and expected to finish much closer. 2nd Pick 14 Cosmic Jinks Jockey: Mikayla Weir Trainer: Brett & Georgie Cavanough J: Mikayla Weir T: Brett & Georgie Cavanough	204	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Dual acceptor. Second run back. First-up after five months faded in the straight 5th of 9 in a F&M Mdn-Sw at Scone on September 1 over 5 ½f, slow going 6 len behind Alphabet carrying 122lbs at $8. Previously second-up 4th of 11 in a Starmaker at Muswellbrook on March 27 over 5f, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Hellenic Belle with 121lbs at $41. Rates highly and expected to finish much closer.
9	Second run back. First-up after nine months sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 11 in a Ctry Mdn-Sw at Dubbo on September 7 over 5f, 1.4 len behind Mazort carrying 126lbs at $16. Previously second-up 4th of 10 in a Mdn-Sw at Ballarat on November 20 over 5f, 6 len behind Faraway Dream carrying 123lbs at $12. Will be hard to beat. 3rd Pick 9 She's Ourvalentine Jockey: Kody Nestor Trainer: Sally Torrens J: Kody Nestor T: Sally Torrens	92	-	-	-	9%	11/1
Analysis Second run back. First-up after nine months sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 4th of 11 in a Ctry Mdn-Sw at Dubbo on September 7 over 5f, 1.4 len behind Mazort carrying 126lbs at $16. Previously second-up 4th of 10 in a Mdn-Sw at Ballarat on November 20 over 5f, 6 len behind Faraway Dream carrying 123lbs at $12. Will be hard to beat.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Silks

The colorful jacket and cap worn by a jockey which features the design of the owner.

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.

Mare

A female horse of five years or more.