AU - Wellington - Race 2

Thoroughbred

13 Runners

Maiden

Turf

SOFT 5

19.4K

VIEW

Verdict

GREY BELIEF (11) is finding the breakthrough elusive but was too bad to be true last start at Dubbo. Her form prior lines up well for this however and she gets a good chance to finally break through if she brings her A-game. Similarly, KOJAK (2) was also well beaten at Dubbo last start but his performances before that were up to scratch for a race of this calibre. Steps back out to a more suitable trip and is drawn to advantage on the inside. Can bounce back sharply. DENISE'S GAL (10) comes through the same race, where she showed good early dash and held on well to finish second. Expecting them to push forward again over this bigger distance. REDALUCA GIRL (12) is mixing her form but comes right into contention down in the weights with the benefit of the 7lbs claim. Is another that backs up quickly and is in the mix.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
11	Most recently ran last of 8 in a Cl1-Sw at Dubbo on September 7 over 1m, 17 len behind Proper Twelve carrying 121lbs at $20. The start before that held ground to the line 3rd of 11 in a Mdn-Sw at Forbes on August 2 over 1m, 0.9 len behind Bella Piazza carrying 126lbs at $1.95. Capable of sharp improvement. 1st Pick 11 Grey Belief Jockey: Mikayla Weir Trainer: Connie Greig J: Mikayla Weir T: Connie Greig	108	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Most recently ran last of 8 in a Cl1-Sw at Dubbo on September 7 over 1m, 17 len behind Proper Twelve carrying 121lbs at $20. The start before that held ground to the line 3rd of 11 in a Mdn-Sw at Forbes on August 2 over 1m, 0.9 len behind Bella Piazza carrying 126lbs at $1.95. Capable of sharp improvement.
2	Most recently got back early 7th of 11 in a Mdn at Dubbo on September 7 over 6 ½f, 8 len behind Miners Mate carrying 129lbs at $14. Before that sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 6th of 9 in a Mdn-Sw at Sunshine Coast on August 16 over 1m, slow going 3.5 len behind Amelioration carrying 129lbs at $4.20. Can do much better. 2nd Pick 2 Kojak Jockey: Liam Blanch Trainer: Todd Smith J: Liam Blanch T: Todd Smith	147	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis Most recently got back early 7th of 11 in a Mdn at Dubbo on September 7 over 6 ½f, 8 len behind Miners Mate carrying 129lbs at $14. Before that sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 6th of 9 in a Mdn-Sw at Sunshine Coast on August 16 over 1m, slow going 3.5 len behind Amelioration carrying 129lbs at $4.20. Can do much better.
10	At the latest run sat on speed throughout when 2nd of 11 in a Mdn at Dubbo on September 7 over 6 ½f, 4 len behind Miners Mate with 121lbs at $5.50. Before that ran last of 9 in a F&M Mdn at Nowra on August 10 over 5 ½f, slow going 7 len behind Bright Promise with 126lbs at $15. Can improve again. Worth following. 3rd Pick 10 Denise's Gal Jockey: Izzy Neale Trainer: Kieren Hazelton J: Izzy Neale T: Kieren Hazelton	158	-	-	-	16%	11/2
Analysis At the latest run sat on speed throughout when 2nd of 11 in a Mdn at Dubbo on September 7 over 6 ½f, 4 len behind Miners Mate with 121lbs at $5.50. Before that ran last of 9 in a F&M Mdn at Nowra on August 10 over 5 ½f, slow going 7 len behind Bright Promise with 126lbs at $15. Can improve again. Worth following.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Sloppy

A wet racetrack condition, typically with a firm base and water settling on top.

Handicap

A race where a handicapper has assigned weights to be carried by all runners on the basis of their past racing efforts.

Workout

A workout is a timed sprint over varying distances prior to a race, meant to get a horse fit enough for competition.