AU - Townsville - Race 4

Thoroughbred

7 Runners

OPEN

Turf

SOFT 5

14.5K

VIEW

Verdict

OUTBACK ACTION (1) gets the nod on the strength of his Bowen second, where he charged from well back and missed by a nose, then last start made ground after being slow away at Emerald. Weight relief and the first-time blinkers mean he can go a bold race. TIME TO PROPHET (3) brings the winning form after holding out Outback Action at Bowen and is already proven at this track and trip, with the 7lbs claim another useful factor. TURN BIRD (2) is in career-best touch, winning here before missing by a nose on soft ground last start. Has claims. HARTSHORN (4) is the specialist angle, with two wins and three placings from six starts at this track and distance. In the mix.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Slowly away at Emerald last start, he settled rearward and still picked up nicely when fourth behind Mississippi Morn, beaten four and a half lengths. The run prior is the stronger pointer, storming home from well back to miss Time To Prophet by a nose at Bowen. Back to 5f with weight relief, first-time blinkers and a wet-track record that reads well, he gets the right set-up to turn consistency into a win. 1st Pick 1 Outback Action Jockey: Lacey Morrison Trainer: Lachie Manzelmann J: Lacey Morrison T: Lachie Manzelmann	188	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Slowly away at Emerald last start, he settled rearward and still picked up nicely when fourth behind Mississippi Morn, beaten four and a half lengths. The run prior is the stronger pointer, storming home from well back to miss Time To Prophet by a nose at Bowen. Back to 5f with weight relief, first-time blinkers and a wet-track record that reads well, he gets the right set-up to turn consistency into a win.
3	Won narrowly at Bowen last start, sitting just off the lead before holding out Outback Action by a nose over 6f. She had been close enough in fifth behind Turn Bird at this venue before that, beaten just under two lengths on soft ground. Back to 5f with a 7lbs claim, a leading stable and proven track-and-trip form, she is going well enough to stay in the mix without looking bombproof. 2nd Pick 3 Time To Prophet Jockey: Amy Graham Trainer: Georgina Holt J: Amy Graham T: Georgina Holt	152	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Won narrowly at Bowen last start, sitting just off the lead before holding out Outback Action by a nose over 6f. She had been close enough in fifth behind Turn Bird at this venue before that, beaten just under two lengths on soft ground. Back to 5f with a 7lbs claim, a leading stable and proven track-and-trip form, she is going well enough to stay in the mix without looking bombproof.
2	Built on his win at this venue when beaten a nose by Northern Pride over 7f here last start, with the market allowing generous odds again. He had beaten Aged Care over 6f the run prior and also holds a recent edge over Outback Action. Dropping back to 5f is within scope on his record, and Ryan Wiggins is a positive booking, though he profiles more as a solid place chance than the main win play. 3rd Pick 2 Turn Bird Jockey: Ryan Wiggins Trainer: Steven Royes J: Ryan Wiggins T: Steven Royes	184	-	-	-	27%	11/4
Analysis Built on his win at this venue when beaten a nose by Northern Pride over 7f here last start, with the market allowing generous odds again. He had beaten Aged Care over 6f the run prior and also holds a recent edge over Outback Action. Dropping back to 5f is within scope on his record, and Ryan Wiggins is a positive booking, though he profiles more as a solid place chance than the main win play.

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