AU - Townsville - Race 1

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

Maiden

Turf

SOFT 5

15.9K

VIEW

Verdict

NICCO NOTA FIGHTER (11) is the one to beat on the strength of his Cairns second, where he was beaten just over half a length by Formal Affair and had Booming Belief behind him. Better off clean overlooking his Mackay failure, suspecting he rebounds here. BOOMING BELIEF (9) brings consistent form, having placed at Cairns then run second at this track, beaten just over a length. Like her back to 5f, she's race-fit and knocking hard. BEERSHEBA (1) is the key debutant after winning a local trial, though barrier 11 and 132lbs leave less room for error. HARRY HOT LAPS (3) also debuts off a solid trial at this venue and draws to get a fair introduction, making him a genuine chance if that trial form transfers to race day. BETTER OPTION (2) is another debutant that's worth a market watch.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
11	Has the right reference point through his Cairns second two back, when beaten just over half a length by Formal Affair and finishing ahead of Booming Belief. The Mackay failure in a 3yo+ Maiden was plainly below his best after beginning awkwardly and dropping out, but his 5f record is solid for a maiden. Mackay was poor, but blinkers third-up can spark the rebound. 1st Pick 11 Nicco Nota Fighter Jockey: Nathan Thomas Trainer: Matthew Mcguire J: Nathan Thomas T: Matthew Mcguire	148	-	-	-	8%	12/1
Analysis Has the right reference point through his Cairns second two back, when beaten just over half a length by Formal Affair and finishing ahead of Booming Belief. The Mackay failure in a 3yo+ Maiden was plainly below his best after beginning awkwardly and dropping out, but his 5f record is solid for a maiden. Mackay was poor, but blinkers third-up can spark the rebound.
9	Has put together two strong runs this campaign, finishing third at Cairns after racing wide, then second at this track when beaten just over a length by Far And Wide. She was respected in betting both times and now gets an easier assignment after provincial grade last start. Back to 5f is the query, but she rates highly. 2nd Pick 9 Booming Belief Jockey: Sean Cormack Trainer: Fred Wieland J: Sean Cormack T: Fred Wieland	143	-	-	-	39%	13/8
Analysis Has put together two strong runs this campaign, finishing third at Cairns after racing wide, then second at this track when beaten just over a length by Far And Wide. She was respected in betting both times and now gets an easier assignment after provincial grade last start. Back to 5f is the query, but she rates highly.
1	Makes his debut with a useful local trial win behind him, scoring over 4 ¼f last month, and that gives him a stronger starting point than most first starters in this field. The family offers a little early-speed encouragement through Ibegood, who placed on debut at Darwin. Wide barrier and 132lbs ask a question, but the trial win makes him a serious first-up threat. 3rd Pick 1 Beersheba Jockey: Wanderson D'avila Trainer: Wanderson D'avila J: Wanderson D'avila T: Wanderson D'avila	44	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis Makes his debut with a useful local trial win behind him, scoring over 4 ¼f last month, and that gives him a stronger starting point than most first starters in this field. The family offers a little early-speed encouragement through Ibegood, who placed on debut at Darwin. Wide barrier and 132lbs ask a question, but the trial win makes him a serious first-up threat.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Rabbit

Also known as a pacemaker; this is a horse with no expected chance of winning but is used to prompt a quick pace on the front end of the race to the benefit of a stablemate who is a closer.

Also Eligible

A horse that is entered but does not draw into the body of the field due to too many entries, and thus is not permitted to start unless there are enough scratches to shrink the field size.

Exacta

A bet selecting the first and second horses in a race in the correct order. An exacta box refers to paying a little more to ensure they can finish in either order.