GB - Kelso - Race 4

Thoroughbred

7 Runners

23.4f

Handicap Chase

Turf

Good (Good to Soft in places)

20.5K

VIEW

Verdict

The handicapper has taken a swipe at WOLFBURG, raising him 11 lb for his wide-margin victory at Carlisle, but there was plenty to like about the way he did the job that day and he's open to further improvement in this sphere. Erne River has slipped to a dangerous mark and looks the one most likely to make a race of it with Wolfburg, given that Dare To Shout, Hudson de Grugy and Walk On Quest all underperformed last time, while Cadell is out of sorts and Red Happy has been off for over a year.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
7	Got off the mark over fences at Wetherby in December and has continued to progress since, doubling his tally in this sphere with a career-best display at Carlisle (2½m, good) last time. Hit with an 11 lb rise but he may well have more to offer as a chaser. 1st Pick 7 Wolfburg (Ire) Jockey: Patrick Wadge Trainer: Sandy Thomson J: Patrick Wadge T: Sandy Thomson	100	-	-	-	63%
Analysis Got off the mark over fences at Wetherby in December and has continued to progress since, doubling his tally in this sphere with a career-best display at Carlisle (2½m, good) last time. Hit with an 11 lb rise but he may well have more to offer as a chaser.
2	Winless since December 2023 but fallen a long way in the weights as a consequence and made the frame in a trio of valuable handicaps last spring, including at the Aintree Grand National meeting. Shaped pretty well in a first-time tongue strap (retained) at Doncaster last time and he merits respect. 2nd Pick 2 Erne River (Ire) Jockey: Tom Broughton Trainer: Nick Kent J: Tom Broughton T: Nick Kent	98	-	-	-	12%
Analysis Winless since December 2023 but fallen a long way in the weights as a consequence and made the frame in a trio of valuable handicaps last spring, including at the Aintree Grand National meeting. Shaped pretty well in a first-time tongue strap (retained) at Doncaster last time and he merits respect.
4	Didn't need to improve much to make a winning reappearance at Carlisle (3m, good to firm) off 6 lb higher but has not scaled same heights since, again coming up short when fifth in a 6-runner affair here last month, subsequent to which he's undergone a breathing operation. 3rd Pick 4 Dare To Shout Jockey: Danny Mcmenamin Trainer: Ann Hamilton J: Danny Mcmenamin T: Ann Hamilton	98	-	-	-	23%
Analysis Didn't need to improve much to make a winning reappearance at Carlisle (3m, good to firm) off 6 lb higher but has not scaled same heights since, again coming up short when fifth in a 6-runner affair here last month, subsequent to which he's undergone a breathing operation.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Allowance Race

A race with non-claiming conditions set by the racing secretary. They are meant to be a step down from stakes racing.

Breeder

The owner of a horse’s dam – or mother - at the time a horse is foaled.