Japan - Kyoto RC - Race 11

Thoroughbred

18 Runners

14.9f

OPEN

Turf

2672.8K

VIEW

R10

R11

R12

Verdict

LOVCEN (8) sets the standard after adding the G2 Kobe Shimbun Hai (Japanese St Leger Trial) to his G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) win, each by a nose, and his overall record of five wins and one placing from six starts gives him the strongest exposed profile. Looking to be just the ninth to win the Triple Crown (latest was Contrail) and fancy he is the right type to add his name to the history books. CONGESTUS (2) was only beaten a length and a half behind Lovcen at Hanshin and has already won at this track, so he is a genuine danger despite trying 1 ?m for the first time. DANON HISTORY (10) brings a different profile, resuming after dominant wins over 1 ?m at Hakodate and Sapporo. Put up an eight-length margin last time, the question is the rise into G1 company rather than his staying promise. JUSTIN CHICAGO (5) beat the Nakayama trial form by a length in the G2 Asahi Hai St Lite Kinen. He's one well set for this and seems sure to run well.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
8	Returns off a five-week let-up in outstanding form, having won the G2 Kobe Shimbun Hai (Japanese St Leger Trial) at Hanshin as a prohibitive odds-on favourite. He had earlier won the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) at Tokyo, again by a nose, after finishing over the top of them. Chases the Triple Crown (would be the ninth to ever do it) and stands out as the star colt of his generation. 1st Pick 8 Lovcen Jockey: Kohei Matsuyama Trainer: Haruki Sugiyama J: Kohei Matsuyama T: Haruki Sugiyama	164	-	-	-	40%	6/4
Analysis Returns off a five-week let-up in outstanding form, having won the G2 Kobe Shimbun Hai (Japanese St Leger Trial) at Hanshin as a prohibitive odds-on favourite. He had earlier won the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) at Tokyo, again by a nose, after finishing over the top of them. Chases the Triple Crown (would be the ninth to ever do it) and stands out as the star colt of his generation.
2	Returns off a five-week let-up after finishing sixth in the G2 Kobe Shimbun Hai (Japanese St Leger Trial) at Hanshin, beaten a length and a half by Lovcen after tracking the speed and not quite finishing it off. His G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) ninth was also close enough, beaten two and a half lengths. A previous win at this track and three wins from five starts keep him right in the race. 2nd Pick 2 Congestus Jockey: Atsuya Nishimura Trainer: Tomokazu Takano J: Atsuya Nishimura T: Tomokazu Takano	110	-	-	-	8%	12/1
Analysis Returns off a five-week let-up after finishing sixth in the G2 Kobe Shimbun Hai (Japanese St Leger Trial) at Hanshin, beaten a length and a half by Lovcen after tracking the speed and not quite finishing it off. His G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) ninth was also close enough, beaten two and a half lengths. A previous win at this track and three wins from five starts keep him right in the race.
10	Returns from a three-month break after two dominant ALLOW wins over 1m, most recently beating Jun Tsubamegaeshi by eight lengths at Sapporo as a prohibitive odds-on favourite. He also won by a long way at Hakodate, so the staying profile is clear. This is a sharp rise into black-type company and 1m is new, but his upside makes him a major winning chance. 3rd Pick 10 Danon History Jockey: Christophe Lemaire Trainer: Noriyuki Hori J: Christophe Lemaire T: Noriyuki Hori	98	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis Returns from a three-month break after two dominant ALLOW wins over 1m, most recently beating Jun Tsubamegaeshi by eight lengths at Sapporo as a prohibitive odds-on favourite. He also won by a long way at Hakodate, so the staying profile is clear. This is a sharp rise into black-type company and 1m is new, but his upside makes him a major winning chance.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Rabbit

Also known as a pacemaker; this is a horse with no expected chance of winning but is used to prompt a quick pace on the front end of the race to the benefit of a stablemate who is a closer.

Filly

A female horse that is four years of age or under.

Across the Board

Refers to betting on a horse to finish first, second, and third to cover any of those scenarios happening during a race