JP - Kawasaki - Race 4

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

Unknown

Dirt

24.0K

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Verdict

REAL BLUES (3) resumes as the runner to beat. He was only fourth on debut, beaten by Bluff Catch, but that came over this 7f at this track and he was near the top of betting, so he owns the most relevant distance reference among the key chances. UME CHAUZO (1) was a well-supported favourite on debut over 4 ½f and failed badly behind Mina Star, yet the market strength, inside draw and second-up profile give him scope to rebound if the first go at 7f proves within reach. LIEN REGALIA (2) also comes through a 4 ½f debut as favourite, but his late work was the more encouraging visual and makes him the safer place-style danger. EPONA CHANCE (5) is race fit and fourth-up after two fair finishes at this venue, she lacks the sharp turn of form of the first three but has enough exposed racing to be competitive for a minor placing.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
3	Returns from a lengthy five-month spell after debuting with a fourth over 7f at this track, beaten nine and a half lengths by Bluff Catch after being near the top of betting. He has already seen this distance, and the inside-half draw with Tsubasa Sasagawa booked gives him a clean platform. With natural improvement from that first raceday experience, he sets the standard. 1st Pick 3 Real Blues Jockey: Tsubasa Sasagawa Trainer: Shoichi Hirata J: Tsubasa Sasagawa T: Shoichi Hirata	76	-	-	-	35%	15/8
Analysis Returns from a lengthy five-month spell after debuting with a fourth over 7f at this track, beaten nine and a half lengths by Bluff Catch after being near the top of betting. He has already seen this distance, and the inside-half draw with Tsubasa Sasagawa booked gives him a clean platform. With natural improvement from that first raceday experience, he sets the standard.
1	Returns from a one-month freshening after a debut that the market expected far more from, starting a well-supported favourite over 4 ½f at this track before finishing fifth behind Mina Star, never competitive and beaten out of sight. The first look at 7f is the obvious unknown, but barrier one and a natural forward pattern give him the chance to show the ability expected first time out. 2nd Pick 1 Ume Chauzo Jockey: Kota Motohashi Trainer: Naoyuki Akiyama J: Kota Motohashi T: Naoyuki Akiyama	88	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Returns from a one-month freshening after a debut that the market expected far more from, starting a well-supported favourite over 4 ½f at this track before finishing fifth behind Mina Star, never competitive and beaten out of sight. The first look at 7f is the obvious unknown, but barrier one and a natural forward pattern give him the chance to show the ability expected first time out.
2	Returns from a one-month freshening after finishing fifth on debut over 4 ½f at this track, beaten seven lengths by Akeno Hime as favourite. He was still well back turning but finished off strongly, which gives him more substance than the bare result. The 7f is new, so the win case is not watertight, but that closing work keeps him firmly in the place mix. 3rd Pick 2 Lien Regalia Jockey: Francisco Goncalves Trainer: Seiji Yamazaki J: Francisco Goncalves T: Seiji Yamazaki	158	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Returns from a one-month freshening after finishing fifth on debut over 4 ½f at this track, beaten seven lengths by Akeno Hime as favourite. He was still well back turning but finished off strongly, which gives him more substance than the bare result. The 7f is new, so the win case is not watertight, but that closing work keeps him firmly in the place mix.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Bobble/Stumble

A slip or a duck from a horse trying to leave the starting gates, often caused by the surface giving way under the feet. This can range from a mild misstep to a stumble down to their knees.

Bolt

A sudden veering to the inside or outside rail, often caused by the horse spooking or shying from something.

Furlong

One furlong is an eighth of a mile.