JP - Tokyo City Keiba - Race 6

Thoroughbred

9 Runners

Unknown

Dirt

20.6K

VIEW

Verdict

LAST FRONTIER (6) is the top pick despite recent finishing positions that do not leap off the page. His last-start seventh behind Proud Mary was plain enough, but he was only beaten just under seven lengths, stays race-fit and brings a higher-class win profile into a race where several rivals have sharper holes in their form. KAZUNO MARIA (5) has the cleaner recent record, having won in C3 two back before finishing fourth as a well-supported favourite behind G T Urara, and her two wins and three placings from seven tries at 7f make her a major danger. BLACK RED (8) arrives in winning form after back-to-back C3 victories at this venue, including a one-length win from Lavatera Jane, and his two wins from three starts at this track and distance give him a genuine platform. GENTLE BAROWS (1) is harder to assess after over a year away, but the inside draw, stronger local stable profile and a fresh 7f assignment give him some minor winning scope if he returns in good order.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
6	Has stronger claims than the recent form line first suggests, with his latest seventh behind Proud Mary at this track only a just-under-seven-length defeat in a race where he was unwanted in the market. He was also not disgraced behind Kreisler two back, working home honestly without threatening. With race fitness, a higher-class win on the CV and extensive 7f grounding, he profiles as the runner to beat. 1st Pick 6 Last Frontier Jockey: Kizawa Sho Trainer: Yoriaki Murakami J: Kizawa Sho T: Yoriaki Murakami	72	-	-	-	39%	13/8
Analysis Has stronger claims than the recent form line first suggests, with his latest seventh behind Proud Mary at this track only a just-under-seven-length defeat in a race where he was unwanted in the market. He was also not disgraced behind Kreisler two back, working home honestly without threatening. With race fitness, a higher-class win on the CV and extensive 7f grounding, he profiles as the runner to beat.
5	Comes off a sound fourth behind G T Urara at this track, beaten two lengths as a well-supported favourite after not quite finishing it off over 6f. She had won a C3 here the run prior, beating Hana Hiraku by a neck at prohibitive odds-on. The return to 7f is well supported by her record at the trip, and her track and jockey statistics keep her right among the key winning chances. 2nd Pick 5 Kazuno Maria Jockey: Haruto Nakayama Trainer: Naya Kazuhisa J: Haruto Nakayama T: Naya Kazuhisa	155	-	-	-	29%	5/2
Analysis Comes off a sound fourth behind G T Urara at this track, beaten two lengths as a well-supported favourite after not quite finishing it off over 6f. She had won a C3 here the run prior, beating Hana Hiraku by a neck at prohibitive odds-on. The return to 7f is well supported by her record at the trip, and her track and jockey statistics keep her right among the key winning chances.
8	Arrives in the right form after consecutive C3 wins at this venue, most recently beating Lavatera Jane by a length when near the top of betting and strong through the line. His prior win over Marukan Presto came at big odds, so the improvement has been sustained. Two wins from three starts at this track and distance make him a very credible threat again. 3rd Pick 8 Black Red Jockey: Wada Joji Trainer: Hiroshi Takami J: Wada Joji T: Hiroshi Takami	189	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Arrives in the right form after consecutive C3 wins at this venue, most recently beating Lavatera Jane by a length when near the top of betting and strong through the line. His prior win over Marukan Presto came at big odds, so the improvement has been sustained. Two wins from three starts at this track and distance make him a very credible threat again.

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