JP - Tokyo City Keiba - Race 7

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

Unknown

Dirt

20.6K

VIEW

Verdict

NOBLE PRIME (5) is the top selection despite a modest numerical profile, with the third-up set-up and top recent-rating pointer giving him his chance to turn fair closing work over 1m into a sharper 6f result. He has placed four times at this track and Wada Joji has been aboard for three placings, so there is enough substance to make him the one to beat. KASHIMA SHORYU (10) is the obvious danger if he can put the last-start ninth over 7f behind him, his prior win at this track was sound and his two 6f runs have produced a win and a placing. SMILE LOCO (8) was only beaten two and a half lengths first-up after starting near the top of betting, and her earlier six-length win at this track and distance reads strongly for this. BEAUTIFUL BELL (11) is the reliable late danger, having resumed with a third beaten just under two lengths and boasting two wins and three placings from 14 runs at this track and distance.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
5	Worked home fairly from a long way back when seventh over 1m at this track last start, beaten six and a half lengths by Uptown Girl. The start prior was poor, but he now reaches the third run of the campaign with the leading recent-rating profile and Wada Joji staying aboard. The first look at 6f is a query to answer mid-race, yet his fitness edge and track placing record make him a strong winning hope. 1st Pick 5 Noble Prime Jockey: Wada Joji Trainer: Kenji Sano J: Wada Joji T: Kenji Sano	78	-	-	-	37%	7/4
Analysis Worked home fairly from a long way back when seventh over 1m at this track last start, beaten six and a half lengths by Uptown Girl. The start prior was poor, but he now reaches the third run of the campaign with the leading recent-rating profile and Wada Joji staying aboard. The first look at 6f is a query to answer mid-race, yet his fitness edge and track placing record make him a strong winning hope.
10	Found little in the run home when ninth over 7f at this track last start, so that effort has to be treated cautiously. His prior run is the stronger reference, winning a COND at this venue by a length from Dear One, and the return to 6f suits with a win and a placing from two tries at the trip. With a leading track jockey aboard, he is a major chance to bounce back. 2nd Pick 10 Kashima Shoryu Jockey: Tsubasa Sasagawa Trainer: Yoshihiro Sawa J: Tsubasa Sasagawa T: Yoshihiro Sawa	113	-	-	-	27%	11/4
Analysis Found little in the run home when ninth over 7f at this track last start, so that effort has to be treated cautiously. His prior run is the stronger reference, winning a COND at this venue by a length from Dear One, and the return to 6f suits with a win and a placing from two tries at the trip. With a leading track jockey aboard, he is a major chance to bounce back.
8	Resumed with a fair sixth at this track, beaten two and a half lengths by Sean Barows after starting near the top of betting. That was below market expectation, but her previous run was a dominant COND win over this track and distance, beating Amazing Yoshino by six lengths as odds-on favourite. Proven under these conditions and with the winning rider back, she has a strong platform to rebound. 3rd Pick 8 Smile Loco Jockey: Keita Nishi Trainer: Hidemitsu Sakai J: Keita Nishi T: Hidemitsu Sakai	169	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Resumed with a fair sixth at this track, beaten two and a half lengths by Sean Barows after starting near the top of betting. That was below market expectation, but her previous run was a dominant COND win over this track and distance, beating Amazing Yoshino by six lengths as odds-on favourite. Proven under these conditions and with the winning rider back, she has a strong platform to rebound.

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