NZ - Hawera - Race 3

Thoroughbred

19 Runners

Maiden

Turf

SOFT 7

14.1K

VIEW

Verdict

DIPLOMATIC (1) had no luck when blocked for a run most of the straight when fresh last start at the end of May. Ability is there, gets maiden win soon. BRUTAL REALITY (7) recent races on poly tracks over much further. Freshened up and back to 6f creates interest here. HOTPROFILE (17) was well supported on debut but didn't offer much from midfield. Don't drop. AIN'T IT FUN (5) put in a good run from the rear for 2nd on debut here in March then led & tried hard when 4th here in April. Keep safe.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Back from a spell. Finished off last campaign raced on speed throughout when 3rd of 12 at Wanganui on May 30 over 6 ¾f, slow going 0.9 len behind Cezanne carrying 127lbs at $4.80. When resuming last campaign 4th of 9 at Te Rapa on December 20 over 6f, on a slow track, 2.75 len behind Confesara with 125lbs at $21.40. Looks very hard to beat. 1st Pick 1 Diplomatic Jockey: Kavish Chowdhoory Trainer: Gavin Sharrock J: Kavish Chowdhoory T: Gavin Sharrock	82	-	-	-	36%
Analysis Back from a spell. Finished off last campaign raced on speed throughout when 3rd of 12 at Wanganui on May 30 over 6 ¾f, slow going 0.9 len behind Cezanne carrying 127lbs at $4.80. When resuming last campaign 4th of 9 at Te Rapa on December 20 over 6f, on a slow track, 2.75 len behind Confesara with 125lbs at $21.40. Looks very hard to beat.
7	Comes here off a 36-day let-up. Most recently 6th of 8 at Cambridge Synthetic on August 28 over 7 ¾f, 5 len behind Omalish with 125lbs at $9.60. The race before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily ran second last of 7 at Cambridge Synthetic on August 19 over 1 ¼m, 14 len behind Bright Thoughts with 125lbs at $9.30. Capable of sharp improvement. 2nd Pick 7 Brutal Reality Jockey: Tom Wigram Trainer: G A & D G Rogerson & Clint Isdale J: Tom Wigram T: G A & D G Rogerson & Clint Isdale	69	-	-	-	6%
Analysis Comes here off a 36-day let-up. Most recently 6th of 8 at Cambridge Synthetic on August 28 over 7 ¾f, 5 len behind Omalish with 125lbs at $9.60. The race before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily ran second last of 7 at Cambridge Synthetic on August 19 over 1 ¼m, 14 len behind Bright Thoughts with 125lbs at $9.30. Capable of sharp improvement.
6	Most recently 4th of 13 at Matamata on September 16 over 7f, on a slow track, 2 len behind Vintage Rose carrying 127lbs at $11.60. The run before that struggled in the run home, ran second last of 10 at Hastings on August 22 over 7f, on a wet track, 14 len behind Makarov carrying 125lbs at $6.50. Can improve enough to take this out. 3rd Pick 6 Mafia Whispers Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Natacha Otto J: Non Runner T: Natacha Otto	108	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis Most recently 4th of 13 at Matamata on September 16 over 7f, on a slow track, 2 len behind Vintage Rose carrying 127lbs at $11.60. The run before that struggled in the run home, ran second last of 10 at Hastings on August 22 over 7f, on a wet track, 14 len behind Makarov carrying 125lbs at $6.50. Can improve enough to take this out.

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A horse is a scratch when injury or other necessity causes it to be withdrawn from the race.

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