Hong Kong Sha Tin - Race 9

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

Restricted

Turf

GOOD FIRM

239.5K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

BRILLIANT EXPRESS (1) settled well off the pace when resuming, and then caught the eye with a big late finish for fifth over 6f. That form has since been franked, and he slides down in grade, while stepping up to a more suitable 7f. He strips fitter and is the one to beat. HAROLD WIN (5) will be peaking third up, and he put the writing on the wall when finishing runner-up over 6f last time out. He can settle in the right spot from his handy gate, and looks set to go one better. EVERYONE'S STAR (3) made progress last season and will be a lot stronger now. He usually needs a run, but having Zac Purton in the saddle is a strong lead that he could be right on target first up. Don't risk him. FLYING FORTRESS (2) found plenty of trouble in the running fresh up, and that effort is best ignored. He is just the type to improve quickly second up, and with some better luck, he can figure in the finish.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Second run back. First-up after three months 5th of 11 at this track on September 28 over 6f, 5 len behind Tomodachi Kokoroe carrying 120lbs at $4.80. Previously second-up 9th of 14 at this track on January 1 over 7f, 4 len behind Devas Twelve with 130lbs at $1.80. Likely improver who is one of the genuine chances. 1st Pick 1 Brilliant Express Jockey: Hugh Bowman Trainer: John Size J: Hugh Bowman T: John Size	138	-	-	-	29%	5/2
Analysis Second run back. First-up after three months 5th of 11 at this track on September 28 over 6f, 5 len behind Tomodachi Kokoroe carrying 120lbs at $4.80. Previously second-up 9th of 14 at this track on January 1 over 7f, 4 len behind Devas Twelve with 130lbs at $1.80. Likely improver who is one of the genuine chances.
5	Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. Resuming 6th of 12 at Sha Tin All Weather on September 14 over 6f, 5 len behind Packing Bole carrying 120lbs at $7.10. Second run from a spell 2nd of 14 at this track on October 1 over 6f, nose behind Kempes with 120lbs at $3.60. Sure to go very well. 2nd Pick 5 Harold Win Jockey: Jerry Chau Trainer: K W Lui J: Jerry Chau T: K W Lui	128	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. Resuming 6th of 12 at Sha Tin All Weather on September 14 over 6f, 5 len behind Packing Bole carrying 120lbs at $7.10. Second run from a spell 2nd of 14 at this track on October 1 over 6f, nose behind Kempes with 120lbs at $3.60. Sure to go very well.
3	Gelding returning from a spell and has won previously when first up. Finished off last campaign second of 11 at this track May 31 over 7f, 2 len behind Ka Ying Attack with 129lbs at $8.50. Previously first up, fourth of 14 at this track January 19 over 7f, 1.75 len behind Patch Of Cosmo carrying 122lbs at $27. Should feature in the finish. 3rd Pick 3 Everyone's Star Jockey: Zac Purton Trainer: F C Lor J: Zac Purton T: F C Lor	128	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis Gelding returning from a spell and has won previously when first up. Finished off last campaign second of 11 at this track May 31 over 7f, 2 len behind Ka Ying Attack with 129lbs at $8.50. Previously first up, fourth of 14 at this track January 19 over 7f, 1.75 len behind Patch Of Cosmo carrying 122lbs at $27. Should feature in the finish.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Also Eligible

A horse that is entered but does not draw into the body of the field due to too many entries, and thus is not permitted to start unless there are enough scratches to shrink the field size.

Overlay

A horse going off at higher odds than his recent efforts show that he deserves.