Hong Kong Sha Tin - Race 7

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

Restricted

Turf

GOOD

149.5K

VIEW

R10

R11

Verdict

PAPAYA BROSE (2) lands here on the back of an impressive debut performance, rounding up his rivals to win by 1.5L. He's been back to the trials since where he was sound under Bowman, who remains with him today. He did jump a 20-1 chance on debut, but the figures were strong and he'll be hard to fend off if he can repeat that effort. ENDEARED (1) creates plenty of interest coming back in class today with the booking of Purton. His last run over this track and trip was just 3 starts ago, where he flew late to be 0.3L off the winner as the race favourite. He'll be back in the run again but watch for him flying late. CALIFORNIA BAY (7) missed in a photo finish here a fortnight ago, jumping the $2.90 favourite. Atzeni rides now, and while he has drawn out he possesses good early speed. Can be in this for a long way. JUST FOLLOW ME (12) has claims off a strong performance last time out.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
2	Getting off the mark on debut, won by 1.5 len at this track February 19 over 6f defeating Prestige Hall with 127lbs at $21. Will take a lot from that hitout and is a key runner. 1st Pick 2 Papaya Brose Jockey: Hugh Bowman Trainer: Caspar Fownes J: Hugh Bowman T: Caspar Fownes	125	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis Getting off the mark on debut, won by 1.5 len at this track February 19 over 6f defeating Prestige Hall with 127lbs at $21. Will take a lot from that hitout and is a key runner.
1	Most recently ran last of 12 at Happy Valley on February 25 over 6f, 8 len behind Outgate carrying 118lbs at $11. The race before that 7th of 12 at Happy Valley on February 4 over 6f, 1.75 len behind Romantic Son with 119lbs at $8.70. Willing to give him another chance. 2nd Pick 1 Endeared Jockey: Zac Purton Trainer: John Size J: Zac Purton T: John Size	156	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Most recently ran last of 12 at Happy Valley on February 25 over 6f, 8 len behind Outgate carrying 118lbs at $11. The race before that 7th of 12 at Happy Valley on February 4 over 6f, 1.75 len behind Romantic Son with 119lbs at $8.70. Willing to give him another chance.
7	At the latest run set the pace for much of the race 2nd of 14 at this track on March 1 over 7f, nose behind Chill Partners carrying 125lbs at $2.90. The run before that held ground to the line 3rd of 14 at this track on February 14 over 7f, 1.0 len behind Amazing Partners with 123lbs at $3.80. Shapes as a key runner. 3rd Pick 7 California Bay Jockey: Andrea Atzeni Trainer: A S Cruz J: Andrea Atzeni T: A S Cruz	135	-	-	-	12%	8/1
Analysis At the latest run set the pace for much of the race 2nd of 14 at this track on March 1 over 7f, nose behind Chill Partners carrying 125lbs at $2.90. The run before that held ground to the line 3rd of 14 at this track on February 14 over 7f, 1.0 len behind Amazing Partners with 123lbs at $3.80. Shapes as a key runner.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Overlay

A horse going off at higher odds than his recent efforts show that he deserves.

Colt

A male horse that is four years of age or under.

Claiming Race

A race in which horses are entered for a certain price, or claiming tag, which is also their sales price. An owner can claim any horse entered for the tag before the race begins, and owns them as soon as the gates open.