Hong Kong Sha Tin - Race 7

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

Restricted

Synthetic

GOOD

237.1K

VIEW

R10

R11

Verdict

BUSTLING CITY (8) showed a clear liking for this surface when breaking through impressively at his first attempt. He won't get it all his own way this time with plenty of speed all around him, but he has plenty of scope, and can take the next step immediately. AURORA PATCH (1) returned with a strong third on turf here a fortnight ago after rolling forward and giving a great sight for a long way. The switch back to the all-weather won't bother him at all, and he gets a big swing in his draw this time. Hard to beat. MIGHTY COMMANDER (2) produced a big effort first-up, making ground into sixth after covering travelling wide throughout off a tough barrier. He maps to get a trip to suit him this time, and he can be right in the finish. PACKING KING (9) gets a nice draw for his all-weather debut and should enjoy a soft run. He has consistently trialled well on the surface and is capable of figuring in the top 4, so keep him safe.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
8	Is first-up after a break of 12 weeks and has been in the money when fresh before. Finished off last preparation post a big 4.5 len win. This track July 4 over 6f defeating Bright Mortar carrying 127lbs at $4. When resuming last campaign third of 14 at Sha Tin May 9 over 5f, 0.8 len behind Oneshot with 123lbs at $8.10. Capable of another bold run while fresh. 1st Pick 8 Bustling City Jockey: Brenton Avdulla Trainer: David A Hayes J: Brenton Avdulla T: David A Hayes	69	-	-	-	58%	3/4
Analysis Is first-up after a break of 12 weeks and has been in the money when fresh before. Finished off last preparation post a big 4.5 len win. This track July 4 over 6f defeating Bright Mortar carrying 127lbs at $4. When resuming last campaign third of 14 at Sha Tin May 9 over 5f, 0.8 len behind Oneshot with 123lbs at $8.10. Capable of another bold run while fresh.
1	Second-up. First-up after two months held ground to the line 3rd of 14 at Sha Tin on September 13 over 6f, 2.25 len behind Lucy In The Sky carrying 134lbs at $9.60. Previously second-up won by 1.5 len at Sha Tin on October 1 over 6f defeating Autumn Vibes with 131lbs at $1.70. Fitter and worth following up. 2nd Pick 1 Aurora Patch Jockey: Vincent Ho Trainer: Manfred Man J: Vincent Ho T: Manfred Man	175	-	-	-	13%	7/1
Analysis Second-up. First-up after two months held ground to the line 3rd of 14 at Sha Tin on September 13 over 6f, 2.25 len behind Lucy In The Sky carrying 134lbs at $9.60. Previously second-up won by 1.5 len at Sha Tin on October 1 over 6f defeating Autumn Vibes with 131lbs at $1.70. Fitter and worth following up.
2	Second run back. First-up after three months 6th of 14 at Sha Tin on September 13 over 6f, 4 len behind Lucy In The Sky carrying 132lbs at $48. Previously second-up 5th of 12 at Happy Valley on October 8 over 6f, 2 len behind Kyrus Dragon with 115lbs at $9.90. Rates highly and should improve. 3rd Pick 2 Mighty Commander Jockey: Luke Ferraris Trainer: Caspar Fownes J: Luke Ferraris T: Caspar Fownes	105	-	-	-	4%	26/1
Analysis Second run back. First-up after three months 6th of 14 at Sha Tin on September 13 over 6f, 4 len behind Lucy In The Sky carrying 132lbs at $48. Previously second-up 5th of 12 at Happy Valley on October 8 over 6f, 2 len behind Kyrus Dragon with 115lbs at $9.90. Rates highly and should improve.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Overlay

A horse going off at higher odds than his recent efforts show that he deserves.

Paddock

The area where horses gather before the race to be saddled and paraded for the public.

Bute

Shortened word for phenylbutazone, the common non-steroidal medication legal at most racetrack.