Hong Kong Sha Tin - Race 7

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

9.9f

Handicap

Turf

GOOD

3318.9K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

Time for the HK Derby now and NUMBERS (2) gets the nod. The wide alley is the obvious query, but he should be able to roll across and lead as he has done in the past. His form coming in is some of the strongest of this field and he can return to winning ways in the Derby. INVINCIBLE IBIS (5) didn't have much luck in the Mile before a much better run in the Classic Cup last time out. 1 ¼m doesn't look an issue for him and he should get all the favours for Bowman from an inside alley. Building at the right time and a positive showing is on the cards. STORMY GROVE (3) stormed home to win the Classic Cup as a 20-1 chance in easy fashion, scoring by 1L. He still has plenty of upside getting to 1 ¼m for the first time and it wouldn't surprise to see him repeat the dose. LITTLE PARADISE (1) is better than he showed in the Classic Cup and can bounce back. Not willing to discount SAGACIOUS LIFE (4) who is a better horse than his recent form suggests.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
2	Form hard to fault. Most recently came from midfield, 4th of 14 at this track Hong Kong Classic Cup on March 1 over 1m, 1.5 len behind Stormy Grove carrying 126lbs at $3.80. The race before that won by 2 len at this track G3 Centenary Vase February 8 over 1m defeating Speed Dragon carrying 117lbs at $1.70. Form stands out in this field and he can return to winning ways. 1st Pick 2 Numbers Jockey: Derek Leung Trainer: F C Lor J: Derek Leung T: F C Lor	133	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis Form hard to fault. Most recently came from midfield, 4th of 14 at this track Hong Kong Classic Cup on March 1 over 1m, 1.5 len behind Stormy Grove carrying 126lbs at $3.80. The race before that won by 2 len at this track G3 Centenary Vase February 8 over 1m defeating Speed Dragon carrying 117lbs at $1.70. Form stands out in this field and he can return to winning ways.
5	Most recently ran on from midfield, 2nd of 14 at this track Hong Kong Classic Cup on March 1 over 1m, 1.0 len behind Stormy Grove with 126lbs at $10. The run before that 6th of 14 at this track Hong Kong Classic Mile on February 1 over 1m, 4 len behind Little Paradise carrying 126lbs at $3.20. Bounced back with a bold run in the Classic Cup and he looks to get every chance. 2nd Pick 5 Invincible Ibis Jockey: Hugh Bowman Trainer: Mark Newnham J: Hugh Bowman T: Mark Newnham	134	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Most recently ran on from midfield, 2nd of 14 at this track Hong Kong Classic Cup on March 1 over 1m, 1.0 len behind Stormy Grove with 126lbs at $10. The run before that 6th of 14 at this track Hong Kong Classic Mile on February 1 over 1m, 4 len behind Little Paradise carrying 126lbs at $3.20. Bounced back with a bold run in the Classic Cup and he looks to get every chance.
3	Racing well recently. Most recently won by 1.0 len at this track Hong Kong Classic Cup March 1 over 1m defeating Invincible Ibis with 126lbs at $22. The start before that ran on strongly from last on the turn and won by 0.8 len at this track February 14 over 1m defeating Without Compare with 125lbs at $6.20. Too good in the Classic Cup and he can go on with the job. 3rd Pick 3 Stormy Grove Jockey: Harry Bentley Trainer: F C Lor J: Harry Bentley T: F C Lor	132	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Racing well recently. Most recently won by 1.0 len at this track Hong Kong Classic Cup March 1 over 1m defeating Invincible Ibis with 126lbs at $22. The start before that ran on strongly from last on the turn and won by 0.8 len at this track February 14 over 1m defeating Without Compare with 125lbs at $6.20. Too good in the Classic Cup and he can go on with the job.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

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A wager picking the first, second and third horses in the exact order. A trifecta box means paying more to ensure the horses can finish in any order in the top three spots.

Claiming Race

A race in which horses are entered for a certain price, or claiming tag, which is also their sales price. An owner can claim any horse entered for the tag before the race begins, and owns them as soon as the gates open.