Hong Kong Sha Tin - Race 1

Thoroughbred

13 Runners

8.9f

Restricted

Turf

GOOD

112.1K

VIEW

R10

R11

Verdict

STAR BROSE (1) brings the strongest recent form after tackling C4 company at his first two runs this campaign, finishing third at Happy Valley before working home for seventh at this track when beaten just over three lengths. The move into Class 5 and Zac Purton taking over give him the right platform to peak third-up. I EXCELLE (6) is the immediate danger after a third at this venue over 1m, having also found the line when short of room two runs back. Looks ready for the rise in trip now and with a better barrier this time, a forward showing is expected. GOLDEN FORTUNE (2) has the winning form, having beaten Kingly Demeanor at Happy Valley, and his one win and one placing from three starts at the distance read well. KINGLY DEMEANOR (4) was honest when second first-up and is a proven track-and-distance winner, though he has to turn the tables on Golden Fortune.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Worked home soundly from midfield when seventh in a Class 4 at this track last start, beaten just over three lengths by Super Goldendragon. That followed a third at Happy Valley, where he was beaten just over a length and was near the top of an open market. Strong winning case third-up. 1st Pick 1 Star Brose Jockey: Zac Purton Trainer: David A Hayes J: Zac Purton T: David A Hayes	140	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Worked home soundly from midfield when seventh in a Class 4 at this track last start, beaten just over three lengths by Super Goldendragon. That followed a third at Happy Valley, where he was beaten just over a length and was near the top of an open market. Strong winning case third-up.
6	Ran well for third at this track over 1m last start, beaten just under two lengths after being pushed widest into the home straight. The start prior had merit too, as he kept staying on when short of room late. If the 1m holds, he is right in this. 2nd Pick 6 I Excelle Jockey: Vincent Ho Trainer: Pierre Ng J: Vincent Ho T: Pierre Ng	85	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Ran well for third at this track over 1m last start, beaten just under two lengths after being pushed widest into the home straight. The start prior had merit too, as he kept staying on when short of room late. If the 1m holds, he is right in this.
2	Comes off a deserved Happy Valley win, scoring by a length and a half from Kingly Demeanor after being near the top of betting. He had been plain enough over 1m at this track the run prior, but his record at 1m is far better, with one win and one placing from three starts. Top weight is the query, not the form. 3rd Pick 2 Golden Fortune Jockey: Brenton Avdulla Trainer: Manfred Man J: Brenton Avdulla T: Manfred Man	112	-	-	-	12%	8/1
Analysis Comes off a deserved Happy Valley win, scoring by a length and a half from Kingly Demeanor after being near the top of betting. He had been plain enough over 1m at this track the run prior, but his record at 1m is far better, with one win and one placing from three starts. Top weight is the query, not the form.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Workout

A workout is a timed sprint over varying distances prior to a race, meant to get a horse fit enough for competition.

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Scratch

A horse is a scratch when injury or other necessity causes it to be withdrawn from the race.