Hong Kong Happy Valley - Race 7

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

8.2f

Restricted

Turf

GOOD

150.5K

VIEW

Verdict

NORTHERN BEAST (4) looks set for a bold effort despite a 3.3L defeat last time out at this track and trip. He jumped the race favourite there but was a little plain once he got into the clear. He's had a trial since that effort and getting away from the inside looks a key to his chances today. Purton sticks and he can get back to winning ways. YOUTH POWER (10) was just 1.3L off the winner last start on the All Weather, though he is a track and trip winner previously. He has the speed to roll forward from a tricky barrier and if he can run up to what he did last start, he'll go close. INCREDIBLE MOMENT (6) just missed two back before a disappointing performance 10 days ago at Sha Tin. Comes to The Valley now and stretches to 1 m for the first time. In the mix. TOP TIME (1) is better than he showed last time out and can improve on that performance.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
4	Comes here off a 35-day let-up. Last start 4th of 12 at this track on October 15 over 1 m, 3 len behind Celtic Times carrying 134lbs at $3. The start before that raced on the pace before fading 11th of 14 at Sha Tin on October 1 over 1m, 6 len behind Oriental Smoke carrying 134lbs at $47. Can improve again. Tough to beat if near his best. 1st Pick 4 Northern Beast Jockey: Zac Purton Trainer: David Hall J: Zac Purton T: David Hall	135	-	-	-	17%
Analysis Comes here off a 35-day let-up. Last start 4th of 12 at this track on October 15 over 1 m, 3 len behind Celtic Times carrying 134lbs at $3. The start before that raced on the pace before fading 11th of 14 at Sha Tin on October 1 over 1m, 6 len behind Oriental Smoke carrying 134lbs at $47. Can improve again. Tough to beat if near his best.
10	Last start raced on the pace when 3rd of 14 at Sha Tin All Weather on October 30 over 1 m, 1.3 len behind Leslie carrying 123lbs at $14. Before that 8th of 12 at this track on October 15 over 1 m, 2.75 len behind Fantastic Fun with 120lbs at $7.60. Genuine type who is among the leading hopes. 2nd Pick 10 Youth Power Jockey: Harry Bentley Trainer: David A Hayes J: Harry Bentley T: David A Hayes	98	-	-	-	8%
Analysis Last start raced on the pace when 3rd of 14 at Sha Tin All Weather on October 30 over 1 m, 1.3 len behind Leslie carrying 123lbs at $14. Before that 8th of 12 at this track on October 15 over 1 m, 2.75 len behind Fantastic Fun with 120lbs at $7.60. Genuine type who is among the leading hopes.
6	Most recently 7th of 12 at Sha Tin on November 9 over 6f, 6 len behind Szeryng with 127lbs at $6.20. The start before that crossed from a wide gate to lead but couldn't hold on when 2nd of 11 at Sha Tin on October 12 over 6f, neck behind Jubilant Winner carrying 129lbs at $7. Great chance to atone. 3rd Pick 6 Incredible Moment Jockey: James Orman Trainer: Mark Newnham J: James Orman T: Mark Newnham	136	-	-	-	17%
Analysis Most recently 7th of 12 at Sha Tin on November 9 over 6f, 6 len behind Szeryng with 127lbs at $6.20. The start before that crossed from a wide gate to lead but couldn't hold on when 2nd of 11 at Sha Tin on October 12 over 6f, neck behind Jubilant Winner carrying 129lbs at $7. Great chance to atone.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

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A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

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A race in which horses are entered for a certain price, or claiming tag, which is also their sales price. An owner can claim any horse entered for the tag before the race begins, and owns them as soon as the gates open.