Hong Kong Happy Valley - Race 5

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

Restricted

Turf

GOOD

150.5K

VIEW

Verdict

MR DESIRA (2) is racing well this campaign, winning two back before a 1L defeat over this track and trip last time out. He had to do some work from the barrier, so a slightly softer draw this time around can increase his chances. Still building into his career and he can get back to winning ways. QUICK MONEY (1) drops back in grade today following a 3.8L defeat at this track and trip last start and looks primed for a much better effort today. J-Mac rides from a better barrier and sharp improvement is on the cards. WINNING MACHINE (12) bounced back to form last time out on the All Weather, finishing a half-length off the winner last time out. Blinkers go on for the first time now and he can be tough to run down with his early speed. BUNTA BABY (8) wasn't beaten far last start and has turn in a nice trial since. Record at this course is iffy, but his recent form suggests he's right in this.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
2	Form hard to fault. Last start tried to lead throughout but was claimed late 3rd of 12 at this track on November 2 over 5f, 1.0 len behind Day Day Victory carrying 133lbs at $3.50. Before that favourite, won by a head at this track October 15 over 6f defeating Find My Love with 127lbs at $2.50. Expected to go well again. 1st Pick 2 Mr Desira Jockey: Vincent Ho Trainer: Caspar Fownes J: Vincent Ho T: Caspar Fownes	124	-	-	-	36%
Analysis Form hard to fault. Last start tried to lead throughout but was claimed late 3rd of 12 at this track on November 2 over 5f, 1.0 len behind Day Day Victory carrying 133lbs at $3.50. Before that favourite, won by a head at this track October 15 over 6f defeating Find My Love with 127lbs at $2.50. Expected to go well again.
1	Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. First-up eased back early on 7th of 14 at Sha Tin on October 4 over 5f, 3.5 len behind Wonderstar carrying 114lbs at $29. Last start 10th of 14 at Sha Tin on October 26 over 5f, 4 len behind Alpha Strike carrying 121lbs at $14. Sure to go close. 2nd Pick 1 Quick Money Jockey: James Mcdonald Trainer: C H Yip J: James Mcdonald T: C H Yip	120	-	-	-	10%
Analysis Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. First-up eased back early on 7th of 14 at Sha Tin on October 4 over 5f, 3.5 len behind Wonderstar carrying 114lbs at $29. Last start 10th of 14 at Sha Tin on October 26 over 5f, 4 len behind Alpha Strike carrying 121lbs at $14. Sure to go close.
12	Most recently 4th of 12 at Sha Tin All Weather on October 30 over 6f, 0.5 len behind Vulcanus carrying 119lbs at $4.90. Before that led to the turn then faded 12th of 14 at Sha Tin on October 12 over 7f, 4 len behind Good Luck Babe with 119lbs at $7.10. Not far away last time. Shapes as a key runner. 3rd Pick 12 Winning Machine Jockey: Matthew Poon Trainer: Danny Shum J: Matthew Poon T: Danny Shum	86	-	-	-	17%
Analysis Most recently 4th of 12 at Sha Tin All Weather on October 30 over 6f, 0.5 len behind Vulcanus carrying 119lbs at $4.90. Before that led to the turn then faded 12th of 14 at Sha Tin on October 12 over 7f, 4 len behind Good Luck Babe with 119lbs at $7.10. Not far away last time. Shapes as a key runner.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

State-Bred

A horse bred in a particular state and thus eligible to race in restricted state-bred races. These can be anything from maiden races to stakes events.

Objection

Claim of foul lodged by a jockey for perceived dangerous or illegal riding by a rival.

Overlay

A horse going off at higher odds than his recent efforts show that he deserves.