NZ - Ellerslie - Race 9

Thoroughbred

10 Runners

9.9f

OPEN

Turf

SOFT 5

291.5K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

EL VENCEDOR (2) dropped back to a mile and was only caught in the final stride when finishing second by a short head here nearly 4 weeks ago. He is hard to beat over this trip, and he is set to bounce straight back into winning form here. WAITAK (1) tried hard in the G1 Mufasa Stakes at Trentham nearly 3 weeks ago over a mile, but had to settle for second by a nose. He has won his only start here over this trip and will be very hard to hold out. LA CRIQUE (7) is a fantastic mare who is hardly ever out of the money in elite company. She was narrowly beaten into third fresh up at Trentham last time out over a mile, but is normally even better with a run under her belt. Hard to beat. LEGARTO (8) was fourth in the same race as the third pick when she was also resuming from a spell. She has trialled since then, and can also take this out. QALI AL FARRASHA (9) won the G2 Breeders Stakes at Pukekohe in her penultimate start, and Opie Bosson keeps the ride from a last-start fourth. Include.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
2	Racing well recently. At the latest run rolled along in front then was edged out late 2nd of 10 at this track in the G3 Great Northern Challenge Stakes on November 29 over 1m, on a slow track, head behind Mary Shan with 130lbs at $1.50. The start before that favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 2.5 len at this track G3 Balmerino Stakes November 4 over 1 ¼m on a rain affected track defeating Diamond Jak carrying 130lbs at $1.50. Expected to be very competitive. 1st Pick 2 El Vencedor Jockey: Michael Dee Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: Michael Dee T: Stephen Marsh	103	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis Racing well recently. At the latest run rolled along in front then was edged out late 2nd of 10 at this track in the G3 Great Northern Challenge Stakes on November 29 over 1m, on a slow track, head behind Mary Shan with 130lbs at $1.50. The start before that favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 2.5 len at this track G3 Balmerino Stakes November 4 over 1 ¼m on a rain affected track defeating Diamond Jak carrying 130lbs at $1.50. Expected to be very competitive.
1	Recent form sound. Last start 2nd of 10 at Trentham in the G1 Mufhasa Classic on December 6 over 1m, on a slow track, nose behind Provence carrying 130lbs at $2.80. The start before that favourite, came from midfield and won by 5.5 len at this track G1 Livamol Classic October 18 over 1 ¼m defeating El Vencedor with 130lbs at $3.80. Leading prospect. 2nd Pick 1 Waitak Jockey: Craig Grylls Trainer: Lance O'sullivan & Andrew Scott J: Craig Grylls T: Lance O'sullivan & Andrew Scott	105	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Recent form sound. Last start 2nd of 10 at Trentham in the G1 Mufhasa Classic on December 6 over 1m, on a slow track, nose behind Provence carrying 130lbs at $2.80. The start before that favourite, came from midfield and won by 5.5 len at this track G1 Livamol Classic October 18 over 1 ¼m defeating El Vencedor with 130lbs at $3.80. Leading prospect.
7	Second-up. First-up after two months 3rd of 10 at Trentham in the G1 Mufhasa Classic on December 6 over 1m, slow going head behind Provence carrying 126lbs at $4.10. Previously second-up 2nd of 14 at Te Rapa in the G1 Howden Mile on September 27 over 1m, on heavy track, 0.5 len behind Waitak carrying 126lbs at $3.50. Rates highly and should feature. 3rd Pick 7 La Crique Jockey: Masahiro Hashizume Trainer: Simon & Katrina Alexander J: Masahiro Hashizume T: Simon & Katrina Alexander	102	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Second-up. First-up after two months 3rd of 10 at Trentham in the G1 Mufhasa Classic on December 6 over 1m, slow going head behind Provence carrying 126lbs at $4.10. Previously second-up 2nd of 14 at Te Rapa in the G1 Howden Mile on September 27 over 1m, on heavy track, 0.5 len behind Waitak carrying 126lbs at $3.50. Rates highly and should feature.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Tack

The equipment the horse wears, including saddle and bridle. A jockey typically has their own racing saddle, placed on each horse they ride just before the race.

Firm

A dry turf course, equal to a ‘fast’ dirt track.

Handicap

A race where a handicapper has assigned weights to be carried by all runners on the basis of their past racing efforts.