NZ - Ellerslie - Race 7

Thoroughbred

13 Runners

5.5f

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

14.7K

VIEW

Verdict

ERIN GO BRAGH (6) went off the boil after finishing second fresh up in the spring, and he will be resuming at an easier level. A recent trial win suggests he is back to the good form that he showed earlier in his career. The pole position makes him the one to beat for us. BRAZEN AFFAIR (2) is a poly track specialist who will be close to her peak fitness third up from a spell. Opie Bosson gets on well with her, and despite her wide gate, she can go close to winning this, even on the turf surface. GRINZINGER MOON (12) makes her NZ debut after showing plenty of talent in Australia. She has trialled up well recently, and she has won fresh up in the past. Follow the market leads. SISTA SUGAR (10) has been battling lately, but she has reunited with Masa Hashizume, and she can do better. Include. MIDORI GLORY (7) toughed out a good win at Matamata last start, and a handy draw helps in this. Freshened, and he has top 4 claims again.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
6	Has won previously first-up and resumes here after a break of five months. Finished off last preparation 12th of 14 at Te Rapa December 13 over 6f, soft track, 10 len behind Britannia Gold with 128lbs at $8.80. When resuming last campaign second of 11 at Tauranga November 1 over 6f, soft track, a long neck behind Kitty Flash with 128lbs at $5. Everything points to a positive return. 1st Pick 6 Erin Go Bragh Jockey: Michael Mcnab Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: Michael Mcnab T: Stephen Marsh	83	-	-	-	29%
Analysis Has won previously first-up and resumes here after a break of five months. Finished off last preparation 12th of 14 at Te Rapa December 13 over 6f, soft track, 10 len behind Britannia Gold with 128lbs at $8.80. When resuming last campaign second of 11 at Tauranga November 1 over 6f, soft track, a long neck behind Kitty Flash with 128lbs at $5. Everything points to a positive return.
2	Third-up today and won third-up in the past. Freshened for 39 days. First-up ran last of 9 at Matamata on February 28 over 6f, slow going 18 len behind Poetic Champion carrying 130lbs at $15.60. Second run from a spell eased back early on in a small field at Te Aroha on March 28 over 5 ¾f, on heavy track, 2.75 len behind Cleat carrying 120lbs at $8.20. Further improvement is anticipated. 2nd Pick 2 Brazen Affair Jockey: Opie Bosson Trainer: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson J: Opie Bosson T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson	142	-	-	-	8%
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up in the past. Freshened for 39 days. First-up ran last of 9 at Matamata on February 28 over 6f, slow going 18 len behind Poetic Champion carrying 130lbs at $15.60. Second run from a spell eased back early on in a small field at Te Aroha on March 28 over 5 ¾f, on heavy track, 2.75 len behind Cleat carrying 120lbs at $8.20. Further improvement is anticipated.
1	Most recently 5th of 12 at this track on April 18 over 6f, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Charmrose with 119lbs at $11.90. The race before that 8th of 10 at Tauranga on March 14 over 6f, in the wet, 11 len behind Churchillian with 117lbs at $5.20. Nice effort last time. Best form measures up and she looks a huge chance. 3rd Pick 1 Egyptian Queen Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson J: Non Runner T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson	120	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis Most recently 5th of 12 at this track on April 18 over 6f, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Charmrose with 119lbs at $11.90. The race before that 8th of 10 at Tauranga on March 14 over 6f, in the wet, 11 len behind Churchillian with 117lbs at $5.20. Nice effort last time. Best form measures up and she looks a huge chance.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Fast

A dry dirt track that is typically an ideal racing surface.

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.

Claiming Race

A race in which horses are entered for a certain price, or claiming tag, which is also their sales price. An owner can claim any horse entered for the tag before the race begins, and owns them as soon as the gates open.