NZ - Ellerslie - Race 6

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

OPEN

Turf

SOFT 5

157.4K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

WELL WRITTEN (7) won the G1 1000 Guineas at Riccarton without turning a hair, scoring by well over 2 lengths. She drops in weight, and should be far too good here as well. AFFIRMATIVE ACTION (1) was chasing a hat-trick when getting beaten by a nose in the G1 2000 Guineas at Riccarton nearly 6 weeks ago. He is just so tough and will give the top pick plenty to think about in this. THAT'S GOLD (2) has found some really good form recently, and was a big winner of the G3 Bonecrusher Stakes at Pukekohe nearly 3 weeks ago. He may already be looking for more ground, but he can still run top 3 in this. HE WHO DARES (3) tried hard when finishing fifth in the G1 2000 Guineas, and he has had a trial since then. He is up to any in this, and on a good surface, he will be hard to hold out. FAT CAT (6) resumes from a spell, and is capable of figuring in the top 4 at good value.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
7	Unbeaten in three career runs. Comes off a 48 day let-up. Most recently favourite, won by 2.5 len at Riccarton Park G1 New Zealand 1000 Guineas November 8 over 1m defeating Lollapalooza with 125lbs at $1.50. The start before that favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 6 len at this track G2 Soliloquy Stakes October 18 over 7f defeating Little Black Dress with 125lbs at $2.70. Terrific chance again. 1st Pick 7 Well Written Jockey: Matt Cartwright Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: Matt Cartwright T: Stephen Marsh	226	-	-	-	43%	11/8
Analysis Unbeaten in three career runs. Comes off a 48 day let-up. Most recently favourite, won by 2.5 len at Riccarton Park G1 New Zealand 1000 Guineas November 8 over 1m defeating Lollapalooza with 125lbs at $1.50. The start before that favourite, tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 6 len at this track G2 Soliloquy Stakes October 18 over 7f defeating Little Black Dress with 125lbs at $2.70. Terrific chance again.
1	Form hard to fault. Comes off a 41 day let-up. At the latest run made ground from midfield, 2nd of 15 at Riccarton Park in the G1 New Zealand 2000 Guineas on November 15 over 1m, on rain affected going, nose behind Romanoff carrying 126lbs at $6.10. Before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by a neck at this track November 4 over 7f on a soft track defeating Faultless carrying 128lbs at $4.10. Form has been hard to fault - can make amends. 2nd Pick 1 Affirmative Action Jockey: Michael Dee Trainer: Pam Gerard J: Michael Dee T: Pam Gerard	141	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Form hard to fault. Comes off a 41 day let-up. At the latest run made ground from midfield, 2nd of 15 at Riccarton Park in the G1 New Zealand 2000 Guineas on November 15 over 1m, on rain affected going, nose behind Romanoff carrying 126lbs at $6.10. Before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by a neck at this track November 4 over 7f on a soft track defeating Faultless carrying 128lbs at $4.10. Form has been hard to fault - can make amends.
2	Chasing a hat-trick. At the latest run won by 0.5 len at Pukekohe G3 Bonecrusher Stakes December 6 over 7f in soft going defeating To Cap It All with 126lbs at $7.10. The start before that won by a long-neck at Te Aroha November 26 over 7f defeating Fleeting Star carrying 127lbs at $5.10. Key chance capable of going on with it. 3rd Pick 2 That's Gold Jockey: Samantha Collett Trainer: Chris Wood J: Samantha Collett T: Chris Wood	112	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Chasing a hat-trick. At the latest run won by 0.5 len at Pukekohe G3 Bonecrusher Stakes December 6 over 7f in soft going defeating To Cap It All with 126lbs at $7.10. The start before that won by a long-neck at Te Aroha November 26 over 7f defeating Fleeting Star carrying 127lbs at $5.10. Key chance capable of going on with it.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Pari-Mutuel

A pool style wagering system, where all money input through betting is divided among those with winning tickets (save for various deductions by the track operators).

Starter Race

An allowance race restricted to horses who have started for a certain claiming price recently.

Objection

Claim of foul lodged by a jockey for perceived dangerous or illegal riding by a rival.