NZ - Ellerslie - Race 4

Thoroughbred

17 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

46.6K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

HIGH EMOTION (12) followed on from an easy maiden win at Arawa Park with a game effort for third at Pukekohe nearly 3 weeks ago. She cops a tough gate here, but is still the one to beat. THE EXPONENT (6) raced well through a winter campaign and resumes from a tough gate here. He comes to hand quickly and can't be taken lightly. Check the market moves. SHE'S UNTOUCHABLE (11) has found it hard to win another race, but has been placed in 3 of her 6 starts on this course. She cops a tough gate, but can still figure in the top 4. MID OCEAN (15) last raced in the NZ Oaks over 1 ½m, and is ready to rumble fresh up after winning a recent Pukekohe trial very easily. Watch for her late. AWATERE (1) resumed with a big run for second and has never missed a cheque second-up in the past. Each way claims in this. ESPADAS (4) made up a lot of late ground for fourth fresh up here nearly 4 weeks ago, and has the advantage of the pole position here. He is a 5-year-old gelding making up for lost time.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
12	Racing well recently. Last start led but faded 3rd of 14 at Pukekohe on December 6 over 7 ½f, slow going 1.2 len behind Altari with 126lbs at $3.80. The race before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 1.3 len at Arawa Park November 16 over 7f on a rain affected track defeating Miss Parker carrying 120lbs at $2.10. Key runner who is expected to be in the finish. 1st Pick 12 High Emotion Jockey: Michael Dee Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: Michael Dee T: Stephen Marsh	82	-	-	-	14%	13/2
Analysis Racing well recently. Last start led but faded 3rd of 14 at Pukekohe on December 6 over 7 ½f, slow going 1.2 len behind Altari with 126lbs at $3.80. The race before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 1.3 len at Arawa Park November 16 over 7f on a rain affected track defeating Miss Parker carrying 120lbs at $2.10. Key runner who is expected to be in the finish.
6	Has won previously first-up and resumes here after a break of five months. Finished off last campaign third of 9 at Cambridge Synthetic July 30 over 7 ¾f, 4 len behind Side Eye with 121lbs at $2.80. Previous preparation first-up won by 1.75 len Matamata May 14 over 6f on heavy track defeating Don't Tell Rachel carrying 131lbs at $5. Looks all set for a positive return. 2nd Pick 6 The Exponent Jockey: Joe Doyle Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: Joe Doyle T: Stephen Marsh	68	-	-	-	12%	15/2
Analysis Has won previously first-up and resumes here after a break of five months. Finished off last campaign third of 9 at Cambridge Synthetic July 30 over 7 ¾f, 4 len behind Side Eye with 121lbs at $2.80. Previous preparation first-up won by 1.75 len Matamata May 14 over 6f on heavy track defeating Don't Tell Rachel carrying 131lbs at $5. Looks all set for a positive return.
11	Most recently did the work up front then tired 8th of 14 at Pukekohe on December 6 over 7f, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind Moxie carrying 120lbs at $6.20. The run before that 6th of 14 at Pukekohe on November 22 over 7f, on a slow track, 3 len behind Moxie carrying 119lbs at $11.90. Winning chance. 3rd Pick 11 She's Untouchable Jockey: Matt Cartwright Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: Matt Cartwright T: Stephen Marsh	133	-	-	-	11%	17/2
Analysis Most recently did the work up front then tired 8th of 14 at Pukekohe on December 6 over 7f, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind Moxie carrying 120lbs at $6.20. The run before that 6th of 14 at Pukekohe on November 22 over 7f, on a slow track, 3 len behind Moxie carrying 119lbs at $11.90. Winning chance.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Sloppy

A wet racetrack condition, typically with a firm base and water settling on top.

Bute

Shortened word for phenylbutazone, the common non-steroidal medication legal at most racetrack.

Filly

A female horse that is four years of age or under.