NZ - Ellerslie - Race 1

Thoroughbred

10 Runners

5.5f

Unknown

Turf

SOFT 5

46.6K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

OUT OF THE BLUE (1) has a very bright future with 2 wins from 2 starts, and he has had a quiet trial since his last win nearly 9 weeks ago. There are a few in this with reputations, but he is still the one to beat. KA RON (2) really hit the line strongly for second on debut, and just missed by a nose. He will improve again from that run, and he can go one better. SHE'S NO SAINT (4) was runner-up on debut here, and had won a trial, also on this track, before that. She is down in weight and will pick up a win at short notice. LIGURIA (6) won the latest of a couple of public trials at Pukekohe, and from a good gate, she will be ready to rumble, especially with Warren Kennedy in the irons. O'VALERIE (7) has the pole position for her debut, and she has looked above average when winning both of her public trials. The market will be the best guide in this field.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Looking to keep his unbeaten record intact. When well in the market on debut, favourite, won by 2 len at Riccarton Park September 27 over 4f defeating Luminosity with 127lbs at $1.50. Last start favourite, won by 1.0 len at Riccarton Park October 25 over 4f defeating Miss Twinkle carrying 126lbs at $1.40. Capable of keeping the perfect record intact. 1st Pick 1 Out Of The Blue Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson J: Non Runner T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson	156	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Looking to keep his unbeaten record intact. When well in the market on debut, favourite, won by 2 len at Riccarton Park September 27 over 4f defeating Luminosity with 127lbs at $1.50. Last start favourite, won by 1.0 len at Riccarton Park October 25 over 4f defeating Miss Twinkle carrying 126lbs at $1.40. Capable of keeping the perfect record intact.
2	At debut, 2nd of 8 at Otaki on November 30 over 5 ½f, nose behind Kinnaird carrying 123lbs at $6. Should come on following that hit-out and looks a great chance to break through. 2nd Pick 2 Ka Ron Jockey: Masahiro Hashizume Trainer: Allan Sharrock J: Masahiro Hashizume T: Allan Sharrock	138	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis At debut, 2nd of 8 at Otaki on November 30 over 5 ½f, nose behind Kinnaird carrying 123lbs at $6. Should come on following that hit-out and looks a great chance to break through.
4	At debut, 2nd in a small field at this track on November 29 over 5 ½f, slow going 1.75 len behind Incandescent with 122lbs at $5.40. Rates highly and can break through. 3rd Pick 4 She's No Saint Jockey: Samantha Collett Trainer: Michelle Bradley J: Samantha Collett T: Michelle Bradley	85	-	-	-	14%	13/2
Analysis At debut, 2nd in a small field at this track on November 29 over 5 ½f, slow going 1.75 len behind Incandescent with 122lbs at $5.40. Rates highly and can break through.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Pari-Mutuel

A pool style wagering system, where all money input through betting is divided among those with winning tickets (save for various deductions by the track operators).

Furlong

One furlong is an eighth of a mile.

Trifecta

A wager picking the first, second and third horses in the exact order. A trifecta box means paying more to ensure the horses can finish in any order in the top three spots.