NZ - Ellerslie - Race 1

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

5.5f

Maiden

Turf

SOFT 5

14.7K

VIEW

Verdict

PERFECT CHAOS (4) has been a beaten favourite in all of her 3 starts to date, and she has won at trials in between these runs. She again looks to be well-placed, and she can get the job done here, so follow your money. PHILLYJEAN (5) set the pace at Te Rapa on debut nearly 3 weeks ago, and she was only claimed late, finishing second by a head. She will naturally improve, and she can take them all the way this time. AZIZI (7) has looked promising at the trials, and she makes her debut from the coveted pole position. She is an astute stable, and she will be ready to rumble on debut. BACK OF THE BUS (8) draws well for her debut, and she has also won a recent Avondale trial. Follow the market moves. BILLECART (9) won her latest trial at Avondale very easily, and it is only her wide gate that is the query. She won't be in this class for long.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
4	Recent form sound. Last start 2nd of 12 at Te Rapa on April 25 over 6f, slow going 0.9 len behind System Of Play with 121lbs at $2.40. Before that sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 11 at Pukekohe on February 25 over 5 ½f, on a slow track, 0.3 len behind Belle Rebelle with 122lbs at $3. Expected to feature. 1st Pick 4 Perfect Chaos Jockey: George Rooke Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: George Rooke T: Stephen Marsh	95	-	-	-	42%
Analysis Recent form sound. Last start 2nd of 12 at Te Rapa on April 25 over 6f, slow going 0.9 len behind System Of Play with 121lbs at $2.40. Before that sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 11 at Pukekohe on February 25 over 5 ½f, on a slow track, 0.3 len behind Belle Rebelle with 122lbs at $3. Expected to feature.
5	At debut, rolled along in front then was edged out late 2nd of 8 at Te Rapa on April 17 over 5 ½f, on rain affected going, 0.3 len behind Timeless Beauty with 119lbs at $13.60. Even fitter and is an excellent winning chance. 2nd Pick 5 Phillyjean Jockey: Sam Mcnab Trainer: Samantha Logan J: Sam Mcnab T: Samantha Logan	94	-	-	-	17%
Analysis At debut, rolled along in front then was edged out late 2nd of 8 at Te Rapa on April 17 over 5 ½f, on rain affected going, 0.3 len behind Timeless Beauty with 119lbs at $13.60. Even fitter and is an excellent winning chance.
7	Filly by Astern making her first race start. Recent trial form has been pretty solid. Won a Ellerslie trial over 4f on April 7. Winning chance. 3rd Pick 7 Azizi Jockey: Samantha Collett Trainer: N W Tiley J: Samantha Collett T: N W Tiley	44	-	-	-	19%
Analysis Filly by Astern making her first race start. Recent trial form has been pretty solid. Won a Ellerslie trial over 4f on April 7. Winning chance.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Fractions

The times recorded during the race; with timing starting just past the gate or when the gates open, then parroted for the quarter, half, three-quarters etc. Used as an indication of ability and speed.

Main Track Only

A horse entered for main track only (MTO) is one hoping the weather forecast or track conditions will move the race off the turf course and onto the main track. They are scratched the morning of the race if the conditions stay dry.

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