NZ - Avondale - Race 7

Thoroughbred

17 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

HEAVY 10

9.8K

VIEW

Verdict

ELLE MCFAB (5) was taken on in front at Arawa Park 2 weeks ago, and she still fought on gamely to hold second comfortably. There are no fitness concerns fourth up from a spell, and she is quite capable of leading all the way here. BERTIE WOOSTER (4) was close up in a far stronger field than this at Ellerslie just over 3 weeks ago, and he has no problems with wet ground. He was scratched over the weekend to be kept for this suitable assignment, and his next win is not far away. BERRY BROWN (12) set the pace, and after having no peace in front, she weakened to finish ninth last time out at Waverley. The wetter the better for this mare, and she is worth another chance, especially with Joe Doyle back in the saddle. Stick with her. FINAL REASON (9) followed up her maiden win by a nose with another solid effort for fourth at Arawa Park a fortnight ago. She can make full use of the ace draw, and she is worth including again. GO JOANNA (10) bolted in when clearing her maiden status. Each way.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
5	Last start rolled along in front before being edged out 2nd of 10 at Arawa Park on July 1 over 7 ¾f, on rain affected going, 2.25 len behind Jack In The Box with 121lbs at $5.10. Before that led to the turn then faded 12th of 14 at Matamata on June 14 over 1m, on a slow track, 13 len behind Pegasus carrying 128lbs at $5.30. Made headway last time. Sure to measure up here. 1st Pick 5 Elle Mcfab Jockey: Masahiro Hashizume Trainer: David Greene J: Masahiro Hashizume T: David Greene	115	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Last start rolled along in front before being edged out 2nd of 10 at Arawa Park on July 1 over 7 ¾f, on rain affected going, 2.25 len behind Jack In The Box with 121lbs at $5.10. Before that led to the turn then faded 12th of 14 at Matamata on June 14 over 1m, on a slow track, 13 len behind Pegasus carrying 128lbs at $5.30. Made headway last time. Sure to measure up here.
4	Third-up today. Resuming 5th of 11 at Cambridge Synthetic on June 3 over 7 ¾f, 1.5 len behind What A Yarn carrying 117lbs at $26.90. Second run from a spell 9th of 15 at Ellerslie Spec Cond on June 20 over 1m, on a slow track, 2.5 len behind Orson Stone with 126lbs at $51.80. Has the ability and is among the leading chances. 2nd Pick 4 Bertie Wooster Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Chris Wood J: Non Runner T: Chris Wood	105	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis Third-up today. Resuming 5th of 11 at Cambridge Synthetic on June 3 over 7 ¾f, 1.5 len behind What A Yarn carrying 117lbs at $26.90. Second run from a spell 9th of 15 at Ellerslie Spec Cond on June 20 over 1m, on a slow track, 2.5 len behind Orson Stone with 126lbs at $51.80. Has the ability and is among the leading chances.
12	At the latest run 9th of 14 at Waverley on July 4 over 1 m, on a slow track, 6 len behind Horonuku with 120lbs at $6.90. Before that raced on speed throughout when 3rd of 14 at Matamata on June 14 over 1m, slow going 2.25 len behind Pegasus carrying 123lbs at $8. Will find this more suitable and can bounce back. 3rd Pick 12 Berry Brown Jockey: Joe Doyle Trainer: Andrew Forsman J: Joe Doyle T: Andrew Forsman	114	-	-	-	10%	10/1
Analysis At the latest run 9th of 14 at Waverley on July 4 over 1 m, on a slow track, 6 len behind Horonuku with 120lbs at $6.90. Before that raced on speed throughout when 3rd of 14 at Matamata on June 14 over 1m, slow going 2.25 len behind Pegasus carrying 123lbs at $8. Will find this more suitable and can bounce back.

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The times recorded during the race; with timing starting just past the gate or when the gates open, then parroted for the quarter, half, three-quarters etc. Used as an indication of ability and speed.

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A horse going off at higher odds than his recent efforts show that he deserves.