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2:29 AM

NZ - Avondale - Race 6

Thoroughbred
22 Runners
7f
Maiden
Turf
HEAVY 10
10.8K

All race stats and comments are provided by numberfire. Complex algorithms are used to calculate stats like the power rating. Numberfire picks are provided by horse racing experts that work with numberfire.

Verdict

KYGO STAR (3) won the latest of 3 public trials and put in a solid effort to finish close up in second-place on debut in stronger company 3 weeks ago over 6 ½f at Taupo. A wide gate might be a bonus on a heavy track, and he won't be in this grade for much longer. SHOMA (1) has shown improvement this season and ran fourth in his latest outing over 7f at Ellerslie in tougher company 18 days ago. He is well-placed to break through this time. JUSTICE FOR ALL (10) is a promising maiden filly who resumed last start with a fourth-place finish at Te Rapa over 6f just over 3 weeks ago. She strips fitter, and the extra furlong will be ideal. Each way. MERINI (12) has some breeding to live up to being by leading sire Written Tycoon and out of a stakes-winner in Almighty Girl. She won her latest of 3 trials, and even from a wide gate, she has to be respected, especially if the money comes for her. MISS PARKER (11) fought on gamely for second fresh up at Taupo, and will improve quickly.
numberFire Picks
Horse Stats
#/SilkHorse#/HorsePower RatingHigh SpeedWin %Top 3%Win ProbOdds
3
Kygo Star silk

At debut, raced on the pace when 2nd of 9 at Taupo on September 17 over 6 ½f, slow going long-neck behind Oratia Beauty with 125lbs at $6.40. Rates highly and can break through.

1st Pick
3

Kygo Star

Jockey: Tayla Mitchell

Trainer: Chad Ormsby

J: Tayla Mitchell

T: Chad Ormsby

162---14%13/2

Analysis

At debut, raced on the pace when 2nd of 9 at Taupo on September 17 over 6 ½f, slow going long-neck behind Oratia Beauty with 125lbs at $6.40. Rates highly and can break through.

1
Shoma silk

Last start 4th of 8 at Ellerslie on September 20 over 7f, slow going 4 len behind Churmatt carrying 123lbs at $15.40. The race before that 5th of 13 at Ellerslie in the LR Colin Meads Trophy on September 6 over 6f, slow going 4.5 len behind Affirmative Action with 126lbs at $47.10. Great chance to atone.

2nd Pick
1

Shoma

Jockey: Masahiro Hashizume

Trainer: Paul Mirabelli

J: Masahiro Hashizume

T: Paul Mirabelli

102---10%10/1

Analysis

Last start 4th of 8 at Ellerslie on September 20 over 7f, slow going 4 len behind Churmatt carrying 123lbs at $15.40. The race before that 5th of 13 at Ellerslie in the LR Colin Meads Trophy on September 6 over 6f, slow going 4.5 len behind Affirmative Action with 126lbs at $47.10. Great chance to atone.

10
Justice For All silk

Second run back. First-up after five months 4th in a small field at Te Rapa on September 14 over 6f, on heavy track, 7 len behind Chatelle Rose carrying 121lbs at $4.40. Previously second-up 3rd in a small field at Trentham on April 12 over 6 ½f, slow going 1.3 len behind Faultless with 121lbs at $8.80. Look for a much better performance.

3rd Pick
10

Justice For All

Jockey: Sam Weatherley

Trainer: Tony Pike

J: Sam Weatherley

T: Tony Pike

80---10%10/1

Analysis

Second run back. First-up after five months 4th in a small field at Te Rapa on September 14 over 6f, on heavy track, 7 len behind Chatelle Rose carrying 121lbs at $4.40. Previously second-up 3rd in a small field at Trentham on April 12 over 6 ½f, slow going 1.3 len behind Faultless with 121lbs at $8.80. Look for a much better performance.

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Superfecta

A wager involving choosing the first, second, third, and fourth horses in one race in the exact order. A superfecta box involves paying more to ensure they can finish in any order in the top four spots.

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.

Track Bias

The term used to identify which parts of the track or running styles are producing more winners.