NZ - Avondale - Race 5

Thoroughbred

20 Runners

Maiden

Turf

HEAVY 8

9.7K

VIEW

Verdict

STAY FROSTY (1) has tried hard in all of his 4 starts to date, and he was a brave third as a warm favourite at Tauranga just over 3 weeks ago, and despite copping a tough gate here, he is still the one to beat. SHE MEANS BUSINESS (11) had trialled up well enough prior to finishing fourth on debut at Matamata 17 days ago. She will naturally improve with racing, and Craig Grylls has picked up the ride. Stick with her. Can win. AL AZHAR (9) set the pace and weakened in her penultimate start, and then was just off the lead when running on late for second at Matamata 4 weeks ago. A wet track is no problem, and she can go one better. SAATCHI (12) has been freshened up since a modest effort at Pukekohe 6 weeks ago. She has been close up in a trial since then, and can finish a lot closer here. Each-way value. KIND OF BLUE (7) has gone very close to breaking through, and was only beaten by a nose in her penultimate start. With luck from a wide gate, she can figure in the first four again.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Racing well recently. Last start sat on speed throughout when 3rd of 9 at Tauranga on March 14 over 7f, on a wet track, 2 len behind Morning Cocoa with 129lbs at $1.90. Before that 2nd of 12 at Pukekohe on February 25 over 6f, on a slow track, 0.5 len behind Sweet Smile with 125lbs at $5. Rates highly. Fleet-footed type who is expected to take some catching. 1st Pick 1 Stay Frosty Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Graham Richardson & Rogan Norvall J: Non Runner T: Graham Richardson & Rogan Norvall	132	-	-	-	17%	Scratched
Analysis Racing well recently. Last start sat on speed throughout when 3rd of 9 at Tauranga on March 14 over 7f, on a wet track, 2 len behind Morning Cocoa with 129lbs at $1.90. Before that 2nd of 12 at Pukekohe on February 25 over 6f, on a slow track, 0.5 len behind Sweet Smile with 125lbs at $5. Rates highly. Fleet-footed type who is expected to take some catching.
11	At debut, 4th of 10 at Matamata on March 22 over 6f, on a slow track, 5 len behind Rioja with 123lbs at $7.90. Shows talent and has plenty of scope for improvement. 2nd Pick 11 She Means Business Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson J: Non Runner T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson	78	-	-	-	16%	Scratched
Analysis At debut, 4th of 10 at Matamata on March 22 over 6f, on a slow track, 5 len behind Rioja with 123lbs at $7.90. Shows talent and has plenty of scope for improvement.
9	At the latest run raced on speed throughout when 2nd of 8 at Matamata on March 11 over 7f, on a slow track, 3 len behind Rocky Marciano carrying 123lbs at $4.30. The race before that faded in the straight 8th of 14 at Pukekohe on February 25 over 7f, slow going 3.5 len behind La Diem carrying 126lbs at $13.40. One of the chief contenders. 3rd Pick 9 Al Azhar Jockey: Masahiro Hashizume Trainer: Lance O'sullivan & Andrew Scott J: Masahiro Hashizume T: Lance O'sullivan & Andrew Scott	91	-	-	-	42%
Analysis At the latest run raced on speed throughout when 2nd of 8 at Matamata on March 11 over 7f, on a slow track, 3 len behind Rocky Marciano carrying 123lbs at $4.30. The race before that faded in the straight 8th of 14 at Pukekohe on February 25 over 7f, slow going 3.5 len behind La Diem carrying 126lbs at $13.40. One of the chief contenders.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Firm

A dry turf course, equal to a ‘fast’ dirt track.

Bolt

A sudden veering to the inside or outside rail, often caused by the horse spooking or shying from something.

Sloppy

A wet racetrack condition, typically with a firm base and water settling on top.