NZ - Ascot Park - Race 4

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

OPEN

Turf

HEAVY 10

14.7K

VIEW

Verdict

MARTELL (1) was a beaten favourite fresh up when he looked to be in need of the run. He is at his best when racing on heavy ground, and he will be a quick improver second up. Follow your money. ROCHELLO (4) set the pace and held on grimly for a brave win at Riverton over 7f nearly 2 weeks ago. She is normally even better over 6f, and with only an extra kilo to carry, there is no reason why she can't repeat the dose. THE GOOD SHEPHERD (2) battled on well enough when finishing fourth at Wingatui just over 3 weeks ago. All of his best form is over this trip, so dropping back 1f will be in his favour. There can be no fitness excuses this time, and he has a good chance to bounce back into some decent form after a long run of outs. ZIGGY STARDUST (7) failed to fire in the G3 Breeders' Stakes in her penultimate start, but was back in form when finishing third at Riverton nearly 2 weeks ago. Stick with her. LISE PAREE (5) ran a much better race for third last start. Include.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
1	Second run back. First-up after five months second last of 7 at Riverton on April 4 over 6f, slow going 6 len behind Express Coup with 122lbs at $2.80. Previously second-up 6th of 8 at Ellerslie on April 19 over 6f, slow going 6 len behind Sterling Express carrying 123lbs at $12.60. Expect a far better result this time. 1st Pick 1 Martell Jockey: Amber Riddell Trainer: Kelvin Tyler J: Amber Riddell T: Kelvin Tyler	125	-	-	-	29%
Analysis Second run back. First-up after five months second last of 7 at Riverton on April 4 over 6f, slow going 6 len behind Express Coup with 122lbs at $2.80. Previously second-up 6th of 8 at Ellerslie on April 19 over 6f, slow going 6 len behind Sterling Express carrying 123lbs at $12.60. Expect a far better result this time.
4	Racing well recently. Last start won by a 0.2 len at Riverton April 6 over 7f on a rain affected track defeating Sir Sterling carrying 120lbs at $7.20. Before that 2nd of 7 at Riverton on April 4 over 6f, on a slow track, 0.0 len behind Express Coup carrying 119lbs at $8.20. Will be in this for a long way. 2nd Pick 4 Rochello Jockey: Brett Murray Trainer: Sally Mckay J: Brett Murray T: Sally Mckay	77	-	-	-	15%
Analysis Racing well recently. Last start won by a 0.2 len at Riverton April 6 over 7f on a rain affected track defeating Sir Sterling carrying 120lbs at $7.20. Before that 2nd of 7 at Riverton on April 4 over 6f, on a slow track, 0.0 len behind Express Coup carrying 119lbs at $8.20. Will be in this for a long way.
2	At the latest run 4th of 7 at Wingatui on March 27 over 7f, on a slow track, 2.25 len behind Megalomaniac carrying 132lbs at $15. The start before that 8th of 11 at Ashburton on March 12 over 6f, 3.5 len behind Master Brutus carrying 130lbs at $57.40. Nicely placed and is right in the mix. 3rd Pick 2 The Good Shepherd Jockey: Kendra Bakker Trainer: Lee Callaway J: Kendra Bakker T: Lee Callaway	76	-	-	-	12%
Analysis At the latest run 4th of 7 at Wingatui on March 27 over 7f, on a slow track, 2.25 len behind Megalomaniac carrying 132lbs at $15. The start before that 8th of 11 at Ashburton on March 12 over 6f, 3.5 len behind Master Brutus carrying 130lbs at $57.40. Nicely placed and is right in the mix.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Handicap

A race where a handicapper has assigned weights to be carried by all runners on the basis of their past racing efforts.

Trifecta

A wager picking the first, second and third horses in the exact order. A trifecta box means paying more to ensure the horses can finish in any order in the top three spots.

Bullet

A bullet, or bullet workout, is a workout that was clocked as the best time for a certain distance on a given day.