NZ - Arawa - Race 5

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

7.8f

Benchmark

Turf

HEAVY 10

9.6K

VIEW

Verdict

ELLE MCFAB (4) has set the pace and weakened out of it in each of her 2 starts back from a spell, and should have no fitness concerns third up from a spell. She is a toff in the wet, and a form reversal is on the cards here. On top for us at a price. MORNING COCOA (5) drops back from 1 ?m for this assignment, and she has been placed on this course in the past, which is an advantage, so stick with her on an each-way basis. NOT USUAL MOANA (9) capped off some good form for a well-deserved maiden win at Te Rapa just over a month ago. She benefits from a 4lbs claim, and she has the scope to go on with the job. MARRIAGE VOWS (8) battled away fairly well for a midfield finish at Matamata last time out, and she will drop 6lbs from that run with the aid of a 9lbs claim. Each way. FINAL REASON (7) was a gritty last-stride maiden winner at Te Aroha nearly 4 weeks ago, and from a superior gate, she can measure up in this company as well. Include in all top 4 combos to be safe.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
4	Third-up today and won third-up in the past. Resuming 9th of 11 at Ellerslie on May 23 over 7f, on a slow track, 5 len behind Sweet Smile carrying 115lbs at $24.40. Second run from a spell faded in the straight 12th of 14 at Matamata on June 14 over 1m, slow going 13 len behind Pegasus carrying 128lbs at $5.30. Racing well. Likely improver who looks hard to beat. 1st Pick 4 Elle Mcfab Jockey: Rihaan Goyaram Trainer: David Greene J: Rihaan Goyaram T: David Greene	102	-	-	-	25%
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up in the past. Resuming 9th of 11 at Ellerslie on May 23 over 7f, on a slow track, 5 len behind Sweet Smile carrying 115lbs at $24.40. Second run from a spell faded in the straight 12th of 14 at Matamata on June 14 over 1m, slow going 13 len behind Pegasus carrying 128lbs at $5.30. Racing well. Likely improver who looks hard to beat.
5	Comes here off a 32-day let-up. Last start 6th of 9 at Te Rapa on May 30 over 1m, slow going 5 len behind Heza Sharp One with 127lbs at $3.80. The race before that 4th of 12 at this track on May 9 over 1m, in the wet, 2.75 len behind Whatthemansaw carrying 127lbs at $6.50. Well placed and gets her chance to break through. 2nd Pick 5 Morning Cocoa Jockey: George Rooke Trainer: Andrew Forsman J: George Rooke T: Andrew Forsman	98	-	-	-	19%
Analysis Comes here off a 32-day let-up. Last start 6th of 9 at Te Rapa on May 30 over 1m, slow going 5 len behind Heza Sharp One with 127lbs at $3.80. The race before that 4th of 12 at this track on May 9 over 1m, in the wet, 2.75 len behind Whatthemansaw carrying 127lbs at $6.50. Well placed and gets her chance to break through.
9	Recent form sound. Comes here off a 32-day let-up. Last start won by a neck at Te Rapa May 30 over 1m on a soft track defeating The Darzi carrying 120lbs at $10.10. Before that made some head-way from midfield, 3rd of 11 at Pukekohe on May 1 over 1m, slow going 3.5 len behind Why Daddy carrying 119lbs at $8.30. Looks hard to beat again. 3rd Pick 9 Not Usual Moana Jockey: Sam Mcnab Trainer: Samantha Logan J: Sam Mcnab T: Samantha Logan	109	-	-	-	17%
Analysis Recent form sound. Comes here off a 32-day let-up. Last start won by a neck at Te Rapa May 30 over 1m on a soft track defeating The Darzi carrying 120lbs at $10.10. Before that made some head-way from midfield, 3rd of 11 at Pukekohe on May 1 over 1m, slow going 3.5 len behind Why Daddy carrying 119lbs at $8.30. Looks hard to beat again.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Maiden Race

A race exclusively for horses who have not previously won.

Rabbit

Also known as a pacemaker; this is a horse with no expected chance of winning but is used to prompt a quick pace on the front end of the race to the benefit of a stablemate who is a closer.

Furlong

One furlong is an eighth of a mile.