NZ - Arawa - Race 4

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

Maiden

Turf

HEAVY 10

9.6K

VIEW

Verdict

NOBLE CABELLO (2) has hit the line strongly in both of his runs back from a spell, and cops his third wide draw in a row here, which might not be a bad thing on this course if the track is heavy. Michael McNab sticks with him, and so do we. LAURA (3) was a touch flat in the same race as the second pick when finishing sixth, but her overall form is sound enough for a race like this. Stick with her on an each-way basis. GAME FACE (12) strips fitter second up, and the Myers stable usually has good results when they trek their team to this course. Don't risk her. ADORNMENT (9) strips fitter after modest debut, and the extra 1f will help her. The stable is running hot at the moment. Respect. BLACK DIAMOND (11) is on debut, and she will be ready to rumble. Follow the market moves.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
2	Third-up today. First-up came home strongly from last on the turn, 2nd of 13 at Te Rapa on May 24 over 6 ½f, slow going 1.5 len behind Aurora Belle carrying 127lbs at $32.20. Last start 3rd of 13 at Te Rapa on June 13 over 7f, slow going 1.5 len behind Pure Lotus carrying 125lbs at $12.20. Big chance. 1st Pick 2 Noble Cabello Jockey: Michael Mcnab Trainer: Benjamin King J: Michael Mcnab T: Benjamin King	103	-	-	-	56%
Analysis Third-up today. First-up came home strongly from last on the turn, 2nd of 13 at Te Rapa on May 24 over 6 ½f, slow going 1.5 len behind Aurora Belle carrying 127lbs at $32.20. Last start 3rd of 13 at Te Rapa on June 13 over 7f, slow going 1.5 len behind Pure Lotus carrying 125lbs at $12.20. Big chance.
1	Dual acceptor. Third-up today and placed third-up previously. Resuming made ground from midfield, 4th of 15 at Ellerslie on May 23 over 7f, on a slow track, 1.2 len behind Roc De Night Away with 125lbs at $7.40. Second run from a spell ran second last of 13 at Te Rapa on June 13 over 7f, on a slow track, 10 len behind Pure Lotus carrying 125lbs at $5.20. Racing well. Tough to beat if near her best. 2nd Pick 1 Miss Parker Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Kylie Hoskin J: Non Runner T: Kylie Hoskin	92	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis Dual acceptor. Third-up today and placed third-up previously. Resuming made ground from midfield, 4th of 15 at Ellerslie on May 23 over 7f, on a slow track, 1.2 len behind Roc De Night Away with 125lbs at $7.40. Second run from a spell ran second last of 13 at Te Rapa on June 13 over 7f, on a slow track, 10 len behind Pure Lotus carrying 125lbs at $5.20. Racing well. Tough to beat if near her best.
3	Last start 6th of 13 at Te Rapa on June 13 over 7f, on a slow track, 4 len behind Pure Lotus with 125lbs at $16.10. Before that 4th of 11 at Te Rapa on May 24 over 7 ½f, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind The Ritz with 125lbs at $6.60. Tough to beat if near her best. 3rd Pick 3 Laura Jockey: Sam Mcnab Trainer: Lance O'sullivan & Andrew Scott J: Sam Mcnab T: Lance O'sullivan & Andrew Scott	84	-	-	-	19%
Analysis Last start 6th of 13 at Te Rapa on June 13 over 7f, on a slow track, 4 len behind Pure Lotus with 125lbs at $16.10. Before that 4th of 11 at Te Rapa on May 24 over 7 ½f, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind The Ritz with 125lbs at $6.60. Tough to beat if near her best.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Superfecta

A wager involving choosing the first, second, third, and fourth horses in one race in the exact order. A superfecta box involves paying more to ensure they can finish in any order in the top four spots.

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Breeder

The owner of a horse’s dam – or mother - at the time a horse is foaled.