AU - Muswellbrook - Race 1

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

OPEN

Turf

SOFT 5

20.9K

VIEW

Verdict

BETTER OFF ALONE (4) was very green when resuming in the G3 Ottawa Stakes at Flemington and dropped out quickly once they sprinted, but she has since gone big at the trials and looks ready to show her true ability. Expect her to find the front and prove too sharp for them. HELLENIC BELLE (5) was in the market on debut when thrown straight into the G3 Magic Night at Rosehill, but she raced keenly and couldn't keep up. This is a far more suitable assignment and sharp improvement is anticipated. STREET LYRIC (8) is a Street Boss filly on debut for the Doyle yard and has tightened up nicely through two neat trials. She draws well for Morgan and is entitled to consideration. MAZORT (1) and RAGUEL (2) are other debutants worth a market watch. Both have shown enough in their trials to suggest they can fill a minor spot.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
4	Third race start. First start sat behind the speed prior to fading 7th of 11 at Randwick in the G3 Gimcrack on October 4 over 5f, 1.75 len behind Shiki carrying 123lbs at $6.50. Went for a spell before returning sat on the pace before fading to run last of 8 at Flemington in the G3 Ottawa on March 7 over 5f, 5.5 len behind Medicinal carrying 123lbs at $12. Better placed back at this level and has trialled sharply in-between. 1st Pick 4 Better Off Alone Jockey: Regan Bayliss Trainer: Bjorn Baker J: Regan Bayliss T: Bjorn Baker	157	-	-	-	39%
Analysis Third race start. First start sat behind the speed prior to fading 7th of 11 at Randwick in the G3 Gimcrack on October 4 over 5f, 1.75 len behind Shiki carrying 123lbs at $6.50. Went for a spell before returning sat on the pace before fading to run last of 8 at Flemington in the G3 Ottawa on March 7 over 5f, 5.5 len behind Medicinal carrying 123lbs at $12. Better placed back at this level and has trialled sharply in-between.
5	At debut, ran last of 8 at Rosehill in the G3 Magicnight on March 14 over 6f, 10 len behind Pembrey carrying 125lbs at $8.50. Open to improvement. Trialled strongly before plain debut effort but strikes a much more suitable assignment. 2nd Pick 5 Hellenic Belle Jockey: Mitchell Bell Trainer: Annabel & Rob Archibald J: Mitchell Bell T: Annabel & Rob Archibald	134	-	-	-	34%
Analysis At debut, ran last of 8 at Rosehill in the G3 Magicnight on March 14 over 6f, 10 len behind Pembrey carrying 125lbs at $8.50. Open to improvement. Trialled strongly before plain debut effort but strikes a much more suitable assignment.
8	Filly by Street Boss facing the starter for the first time. Was runner-up in a trial at Beaumont (Newcastle) on March 17 over 4 ¼f. Looks all set to run well. 3rd Pick 8 Street Lyric Jockey: Ashley Morgan Trainer: Nathan Doyle J: Ashley Morgan T: Nathan Doyle	94	-	-	-	29%
Analysis Filly by Street Boss facing the starter for the first time. Was runner-up in a trial at Beaumont (Newcastle) on March 17 over 4 ¼f. Looks all set to run well.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Show Wager

Betting on a horse to finish in the first three spots, which pays out the same whether they win or run second or third.

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Stewards

The officials watching every race at a meet to enforce the rules.