AU - Kilcoy - Race 4

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

9.4f

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

13.3K

VIEW

Verdict

CASTERLY ROCK (1) did a good job last start to finish third over 1 ?m at Gold Coast, beaten 2 lengths. Won't find this as tough so he is likely to feature in the finish. CHANCE WITH WOLVES (5) got well back over 1m at Eagle Farm last time and never threatened, eventually finishing 8 lengths away in ninth. The engagement of Morgan Butler is a positive move and has the talent to put the recent poor run behind him. BANDIT (2) missed the placings two starts back then ran a better race and finished 5.5 lengths away in fourth last time out over 7 ½f at this track. Well placed and there is no reason why he cannot find winning ways. BACCARAT ROUGE (6) improved last time out, finishing 2 lengths from the winner in third at the end of 7 ½f here. Suitably placed so she can figure again.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Last start held ground to the line 3rd of 8 at Gold Coast Bm65 Hcp on December 13 over 1m, 2 len behind Social Outcast carrying 127lbs at $11. Before that eased back early on 6th of 10 at Sunshine Coast Cl1 on November 28 over 1m, slow going 2 len behind Bold Artic carrying 130lbs at $13. Well placed to take this out. 1st Pick 1 Casterly Rock Jockey: Damien Boche Trainer: Jack Bruce J: Damien Boche T: Jack Bruce	118	-	-	-	29%	5/2
Analysis Last start held ground to the line 3rd of 8 at Gold Coast Bm65 Hcp on December 13 over 1m, 2 len behind Social Outcast carrying 127lbs at $11. Before that eased back early on 6th of 10 at Sunshine Coast Cl1 on November 28 over 1m, slow going 2 len behind Bold Artic carrying 130lbs at $13. Well placed to take this out.
5	At the latest run got back early 9th of 12 at Eagle Farm Bm70 on December 27 over 1m, slow going 8 len behind Diamond Epic with 119lbs at $81. The run before that was well back until straightening, raced back then made ground from the turn, won by 2.5 len at Sunshine Coast Bm62 December 20 over 1m defeating Slipsain with 120lbs at $31. Best form stacks up nicely so worth another chance. 2nd Pick 5 Chance With Wolves Jockey: Morgan Butler Trainer: Jan Aitkenhead J: Morgan Butler T: Jan Aitkenhead	120	-	-	-	27%	11/4
Analysis At the latest run got back early 9th of 12 at Eagle Farm Bm70 on December 27 over 1m, slow going 8 len behind Diamond Epic with 119lbs at $81. The run before that was well back until straightening, raced back then made ground from the turn, won by 2.5 len at Sunshine Coast Bm62 December 20 over 1m defeating Slipsain with 120lbs at $31. Best form stacks up nicely so worth another chance.
2	Last start 4th of 8 at this track Bm58 on December 19 over 7 ½f, 5.5 len behind Man In The Mirror carrying 132lbs at $6. The race before that ran last of 15 at Sunshine Coast 0 - 60 on November 28 over 6 ½f, slow going 8 len behind Cracker Essgee with 126lbs at $31. Making headway. Expected to do much better. 3rd Pick 2 Bandit Jockey: Leah Martyn Trainer: Trevor Thomas J: Leah Martyn T: Trevor Thomas	132	-	-	-	6%	18/1
Analysis Last start 4th of 8 at this track Bm58 on December 19 over 7 ½f, 5.5 len behind Man In The Mirror carrying 132lbs at $6. The race before that ran last of 15 at Sunshine Coast 0 - 60 on November 28 over 6 ½f, slow going 8 len behind Cracker Essgee with 126lbs at $31. Making headway. Expected to do much better.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Exercise Rider

A rider built much like a jockey but is employed for exercising and working out horses in the morning.

Allowance Race

A race with non-claiming conditions set by the racing secretary. They are meant to be a step down from stakes racing.

Rabbit

Also known as a pacemaker; this is a horse with no expected chance of winning but is used to prompt a quick pace on the front end of the race to the benefit of a stablemate who is a closer.