AU - Kilcoy - Race 3

Thoroughbred

10 Runners

7.5f

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

14.1K

VIEW

Verdict

VACILLATION (4) improved sharply on his fourth two starts back at Eagle Farm with a win as favourite over 7f at Gatton latest in a determined finish. Drawn for a good run here and can make it back to back wins. DRIALLE (2) finished third at Gatton two runs back but didn't measure up last time over 6 ½f at Sunshine Coast, finishing 3 lengths back in seventh. Better draw this time and will take catching. ULUWATU (5) was well in commission last time out but could only manage to finish seventh over 6f at Toowoomba in a disappointing performance. First try at the long trip and can do much better. SHAPE OF WATER (6) was never really in the race fresh, but is better than that and appears the next in line.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
4	Form hard to fault. At the latest run favourite, won by a nose at Gatton 0 - 60 July 30 over 7f defeating Scruffy carrying 132lbs at $3.30. The run before that 4th of 8 at Eagle Farm Cl3-Sw on July 15 over 1m, 4.5 len behind Margot's Deel with 126lbs at $26. Going well and can measure up again. 1st Pick 4 Vacillation Jockey: Adin Thompson Trainer: Maryann Brosnan J: Adin Thompson T: Maryann Brosnan	172	-	-	-	50%
Analysis Form hard to fault. At the latest run favourite, won by a nose at Gatton 0 - 60 July 30 over 7f defeating Scruffy carrying 132lbs at $3.30. The run before that 4th of 8 at Eagle Farm Cl3-Sw on July 15 over 1m, 4.5 len behind Margot's Deel with 126lbs at $26. Going well and can measure up again.
2	At the latest run led to the turn then faded 7th of 12 at Sunshine Coast Bm62 on July 26 over 6 ½f, 3 len behind Jungle Fever with 130lbs at $18. The run before that rolled along in front before being edged out 3rd of 7 at Gatton Bm65 on July 10 over 7f, 1.75 len behind Nails And Pride with 133lbs at $5.50. Better draw and will take catching. 2nd Pick 2 Drialle Jockey: William Galloway Trainer: Renita Beaton J: William Galloway T: Renita Beaton	110	-	-	-	29%
Analysis At the latest run led to the turn then faded 7th of 12 at Sunshine Coast Bm62 on July 26 over 6 ½f, 3 len behind Jungle Fever with 130lbs at $18. The run before that rolled along in front before being edged out 3rd of 7 at Gatton Bm65 on July 10 over 7f, 1.75 len behind Nails And Pride with 133lbs at $5.50. Better draw and will take catching.
9	Most recently ran on from midfield, 3rd of 10 at Gatton 0 - 60 on July 30 over 7f, 0.8 len behind Vacillation with 116lbs at $6.50. The run before that 3rd of 12 at Goondiwindi Bm50 on July 18 over 6f, 1.75 len behind Elegant Lucy with 129lbs at $7. Drawn for a good run and gets chance to find winning form. 3rd Pick 9 Invisible Target Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Rochelle Pereira J: Non Runner T: Rochelle Pereira	95	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis Most recently ran on from midfield, 3rd of 10 at Gatton 0 - 60 on July 30 over 7f, 0.8 len behind Vacillation with 116lbs at $6.50. The run before that 3rd of 12 at Goondiwindi Bm50 on July 18 over 6f, 1.75 len behind Elegant Lucy with 129lbs at $7. Drawn for a good run and gets chance to find winning form.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Bobble/Stumble

A slip or a duck from a horse trying to leave the starting gates, often caused by the surface giving way under the feet. This can range from a mild misstep to a stumble down to their knees.

Morning Line

An approximation of expected odds in a race, quoted before actual odds are determined.

Yielding

A rain-soaked turf condition often producing a slick or heavy course and slower finish times.