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6:45 AM

AU - Kembla Grange - Race 8

Thoroughbred
16 Runners
6f
Benchmark
Turf
SOFT 7
29.3K

All race stats and comments are provided by numberfire. Complex algorithms are used to calculate stats like the power rating. Numberfire picks are provided by horse racing experts that work with numberfire.

Verdict

HELLISH (2) turned at the tail of the field and couldn't get involved last Saturday in a 5f BM78 of metro standing. Has won four from ten at today's journey and this is a far weaker race. It all sets up perfectly for a return to form. SMART SERENADE (9) was 33 days between runs when a tiring third over 6 ½f at Hawkesbury last time out. More effective at 7f than 6f but with a soft run out of gate one he should be competitive. CONFESS OUR DREAMS (1) was not sighted in four Saturday metro races before a better effort last start, beaten 2.5 lengths over 5 ½f at Canterbury. Back further in grade now and might have found her level. No surprise to see something positive here. MAH ALI (16) is better placed today after failing in a BM74 over the mile at Queanbeyan recently. Best form from earlier this prep reads well so keep her safe. HOUSE OF CARDS (3) is a strong fresh performer back from an 11-week break. Has been in work for a while so should be forward enough to run well.
numberFire Picks
Horse Stats
#/SilkHorse#/HorsePower RatingHigh SpeedWin %Top 3%Win ProbOdds
2
Hellish silk

Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up 3rd of 8 at Wyong Prov Bm68 on October 30 over 5f, 0.5 len behind Oceans One carrying 134lbs at $6. Last start second last of 10 at this track Bm78 on November 22 over 5f, slow going 9 len behind Spywire with 126lbs at $19. Back in class and deserves another chance.

1st Pick
2

Hellish

Jockey: Mitch Stapleford

Trainer: Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter

J: Mitch Stapleford

T: Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter

168---17%5/1

Analysis

Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up 3rd of 8 at Wyong Prov Bm68 on October 30 over 5f, 0.5 len behind Oceans One carrying 134lbs at $6. Last start second last of 10 at this track Bm78 on November 22 over 5f, slow going 9 len behind Spywire with 126lbs at $19. Back in class and deserves another chance.

9
Smart Serenade silk

Form hard to fault. Last start set the pace for much of the race 3rd of 9 at Hawkesbury Mid Bm64 on November 8 over 6 ½f, 2.25 len behind Probability Theory carrying 130lbs at $9. The start before that held ground to the line 3rd of 8 at Muswellbrook Denman Cup on October 6 over 6f, 1.1 len behind Earl Of Bantry with 120lbs at $6. Racing well and another win is on the cards.

2nd Pick
9

Smart Serenade

Jockey: Grant Buckley

Trainer: Nick Mitchell

J: Grant Buckley

T: Nick Mitchell

83---10%10/1

Analysis

Form hard to fault. Last start set the pace for much of the race 3rd of 9 at Hawkesbury Mid Bm64 on November 8 over 6 ½f, 2.25 len behind Probability Theory carrying 130lbs at $9. The start before that held ground to the line 3rd of 8 at Muswellbrook Denman Cup on October 6 over 6f, 1.1 len behind Earl Of Bantry with 120lbs at $6. Racing well and another win is on the cards.

1
Confess Our Dreams silk

At the latest run tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 5th of 9 at Canterbury Bm78 on November 14 over 5 ½f, 2.5 len behind Apex carrying 128lbs at $10. The start before that second last of 10 at Randwick Bm78 on November 1 over 5 ½f, on a slow track, 8 len behind Pokerjack with 128lbs at $16. Struggling in town of late so this drop in grade could see a return to form.

3rd Pick
1

Confess Our Dreams

Jockey: Mollie Fitzgerald

Trainer: Brad Widdup

J: Mollie Fitzgerald

T: Brad Widdup

155---23%7/2

Analysis

At the latest run tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 5th of 9 at Canterbury Bm78 on November 14 over 5 ½f, 2.5 len behind Apex carrying 128lbs at $10. The start before that second last of 10 at Randwick Bm78 on November 1 over 5 ½f, on a slow track, 8 len behind Pokerjack with 128lbs at $16. Struggling in town of late so this drop in grade could see a return to form.

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Tack

The equipment the horse wears, including saddle and bridle. A jockey typically has their own racing saddle, placed on each horse they ride just before the race.

Bug

An apprentice jockey.

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.