AU - Kembla Grange - Race 8

Thoroughbred

13 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 7

35.7K

VIEW

Verdict

CHANGE MY ADDRESS (6) was run off her feet early then started to gather them up in the run home when beaten just over a length over 5 ½f at Randwick last start. Down in grade and is looking for this sort of trip now. Very fit and poised to win. PAPPA BLUE (10) was ridden with intent last time out and responded by digging deep to score his maiden win over this distance at Scone. Big step up today but at just his fourth race start there is plenty of room for progress. Hardy veteran SATNESS (1) recorded his sixth Kembla win recently when he led from the outset and defied spirited challengers over today's journey. Only goes up 2lbs after the claim in a slightly weaker race so he is a serious chance once again. JOHNNY (5) has been finding the line with gusto this prep in shorter races on tighter tracks. Today's fourth-up run sets up perfectly. EXTRA HEIGHTS (4) is racing well in town and is not out of the picture.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
6	Third-up today. First-up got back early 5th of 8 at Gosford Mid Bm64 on February 5 over 5f, 3.5 len behind Banjora with 129lbs at $21. Last start 5th of 13 at Randwick Midway Bm72(71) on February 28 over 5 ½f, slow going 1.1 len behind Bryant with 114lbs at $15. Profiles nicely. NIce drop in grade today and will be cherry ripe at the third run back. 1st Pick 6 Change My Address Jockey: Dylan Gibbons Trainer: John Sargent J: Dylan Gibbons T: John Sargent	125	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Third-up today. First-up got back early 5th of 8 at Gosford Mid Bm64 on February 5 over 5f, 3.5 len behind Banjora with 129lbs at $21. Last start 5th of 13 at Randwick Midway Bm72(71) on February 28 over 5 ½f, slow going 1.1 len behind Bryant with 114lbs at $15. Profiles nicely. NIce drop in grade today and will be cherry ripe at the third run back.
10	Third-up today. Resuming took up a position near the tail 2nd of 12 at Canberra Mdn-Sw on February 6 over 6f, 0.5 len behind Divine Secrets carrying 129lbs at $6.50. Second-up favourite, won by 1.0 len at Scone Mdn-Sw February 24 over 7f in soft going defeating Scoop The Pool with 129lbs at $2.25. Lightly raced three-year-old with plenty of upside. 2nd Pick 10 Pappa Blue Jockey: Tom Sherry Trainer: Annabel & Rob Archibald J: Tom Sherry T: Annabel & Rob Archibald	141	-	-	-	12%	15/2
Analysis Third-up today. Resuming took up a position near the tail 2nd of 12 at Canberra Mdn-Sw on February 6 over 6f, 0.5 len behind Divine Secrets carrying 129lbs at $6.50. Second-up favourite, won by 1.0 len at Scone Mdn-Sw February 24 over 7f in soft going defeating Scoop The Pool with 129lbs at $2.25. Lightly raced three-year-old with plenty of upside.
1	Most recently won by 0.8 len at this track Cond Bm68 February 17 over 7f defeating Commanding Artist with 132lbs at $5.50. Before that 6th of 10 at Randwick Midway Bm72 on January 24 over 1m, 2.5 len behind Promitto carrying 127lbs at $15. Multiple winner over this distance - worth following up. 3rd Pick 1 Satness Jockey: Claire Ramsbotham Trainer: Robert & Luke Price J: Claire Ramsbotham T: Robert & Luke Price	145	-	-	-	12%	15/2
Analysis Most recently won by 0.8 len at this track Cond Bm68 February 17 over 7f defeating Commanding Artist with 132lbs at $5.50. Before that 6th of 10 at Randwick Midway Bm72 on January 24 over 1m, 2.5 len behind Promitto carrying 127lbs at $15. Multiple winner over this distance - worth following up.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Breeder

The owner of a horse’s dam – or mother - at the time a horse is foaled.

Morning Line

An approximation of expected odds in a race, quoted before actual odds are determined.

Bobble/Stumble

A slip or a duck from a horse trying to leave the starting gates, often caused by the surface giving way under the feet. This can range from a mild misstep to a stumble down to their knees.