AU - Kembla Grange - Race 8

Thoroughbred

16 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 7

29.3K

VIEW

Verdict

HELLISH (2) turned at the tail of the field and couldn't get involved last Saturday in a 5f BM78 of metro standing. Has won four from ten at today's journey and this is a far weaker race. It all sets up perfectly for a return to form. SMART SERENADE (9) was 33 days between runs when a tiring third over 6 ½f at Hawkesbury last time out. More effective at 7f than 6f but with a soft run out of gate one he should be competitive. CONFESS OUR DREAMS (1) was not sighted in four Saturday metro races before a better effort last start, beaten 2.5 lengths over 5 ½f at Canterbury. Back further in grade now and might have found her level. No surprise to see something positive here. MAH ALI (16) is better placed today after failing in a BM74 over the mile at Queanbeyan recently. Best form from earlier this prep reads well so keep her safe. HOUSE OF CARDS (3) is a strong fresh performer back from an 11-week break. Has been in work for a while so should be forward enough to run well.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
2	Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up 3rd of 8 at Wyong Prov Bm68 on October 30 over 5f, 0.5 len behind Oceans One carrying 134lbs at $6. Last start second last of 10 at this track Bm78 on November 22 over 5f, slow going 9 len behind Spywire with 126lbs at $19. Back in class and deserves another chance. 1st Pick 2 Hellish Jockey: Mitch Stapleford Trainer: Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter J: Mitch Stapleford T: Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter	168	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up 3rd of 8 at Wyong Prov Bm68 on October 30 over 5f, 0.5 len behind Oceans One carrying 134lbs at $6. Last start second last of 10 at this track Bm78 on November 22 over 5f, slow going 9 len behind Spywire with 126lbs at $19. Back in class and deserves another chance.
9	Form hard to fault. Last start set the pace for much of the race 3rd of 9 at Hawkesbury Mid Bm64 on November 8 over 6 ½f, 2.25 len behind Probability Theory carrying 130lbs at $9. The start before that held ground to the line 3rd of 8 at Muswellbrook Denman Cup on October 6 over 6f, 1.1 len behind Earl Of Bantry with 120lbs at $6. Racing well and another win is on the cards. 2nd Pick 9 Smart Serenade Jockey: Grant Buckley Trainer: Nick Mitchell J: Grant Buckley T: Nick Mitchell	83	-	-	-	10%	10/1
Analysis Form hard to fault. Last start set the pace for much of the race 3rd of 9 at Hawkesbury Mid Bm64 on November 8 over 6 ½f, 2.25 len behind Probability Theory carrying 130lbs at $9. The start before that held ground to the line 3rd of 8 at Muswellbrook Denman Cup on October 6 over 6f, 1.1 len behind Earl Of Bantry with 120lbs at $6. Racing well and another win is on the cards.
1	At the latest run tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 5th of 9 at Canterbury Bm78 on November 14 over 5 ½f, 2.5 len behind Apex carrying 128lbs at $10. The start before that second last of 10 at Randwick Bm78 on November 1 over 5 ½f, on a slow track, 8 len behind Pokerjack with 128lbs at $16. Struggling in town of late so this drop in grade could see a return to form. 3rd Pick 1 Confess Our Dreams Jockey: Mollie Fitzgerald Trainer: Brad Widdup J: Mollie Fitzgerald T: Brad Widdup	155	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis At the latest run tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 5th of 9 at Canterbury Bm78 on November 14 over 5 ½f, 2.5 len behind Apex carrying 128lbs at $10. The start before that second last of 10 at Randwick Bm78 on November 1 over 5 ½f, on a slow track, 8 len behind Pokerjack with 128lbs at $16. Struggling in town of late so this drop in grade could see a return to form.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

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The equipment the horse wears, including saddle and bridle. A jockey typically has their own racing saddle, placed on each horse they ride just before the race.

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An apprentice jockey.

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A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.