AU - Kembla Grange - Race 5

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

31.6K

VIEW

Verdict

Hard to rule too many of these out. MY CHARM (2) has been freshened up since a game third over a staying trip at Warwick Farm a month ago. Honest mare whose ability over longer trips is her trump card in a race that should be run at a solid clip. The local MASTER RILEY (6) looks ready to win after making a late charge only to just miss last time out over 7 ½f here. Enjoys a cosy run out of gate one and at the fourth run back should be spot on for this assignment. CAP D'AIL (1) defeated a subsequent winner in Mayleigh two runs back over this course and distance. Couldn't repeat the dose here ten days ago but certainly deserves another chance. MONTE MAXIMUS (8) has been struggling over shorter trips. Placed once from two tries at the mile. Might need the longer journey now. SONNIG (7) caused a minor boil-over at Hawkesbury last time. Can roll along and play havoc again.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
2	Form hard to fault. Comes off a 29 day let-up. Last start 3rd in a small field in a Bm72 at Warwick Farm on October 5 over 1 5/16m, slow going 4 len behind Millie De Lune with 126lbs at $6.50. The run before that got back early 4th of 8 in a Bm72 at Warwick Farm on September 23 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Grafton Street carrying 126lbs at $6.50. No fitter horse in the race and back at the provincials she looks the one. 1st Pick 2 My Charm Jockey: Jean Van Overmeire Trainer: Brad Widdup J: Jean Van Overmeire T: Brad Widdup	145	-	-	-	19%	9/2
Analysis Form hard to fault. Comes off a 29 day let-up. Last start 3rd in a small field in a Bm72 at Warwick Farm on October 5 over 1 5/16m, slow going 4 len behind Millie De Lune with 126lbs at $6.50. The run before that got back early 4th of 8 in a Bm72 at Warwick Farm on September 23 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 1.75 len behind Grafton Street carrying 126lbs at $6.50. No fitter horse in the race and back at the provincials she looks the one.
6	Most recently 2nd of 10 in a Prov Bm64 at this track on October 24 over 7 ½f, head behind Bondi Blossom with 128lbs at $4.80. The race before that raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 6th of 13 in a Bm64 at this track on October 10 over 7f, 2.25 len behind Gridlock with 129lbs at $15. Getting out to the mile at the fourth run back looks a perfect set-up. 2nd Pick 6 Master Riley Jockey: Jess Taylor Trainer: Theresa Bateup J: Jess Taylor T: Theresa Bateup	150	-	-	-	29%	5/2
Analysis Most recently 2nd of 10 in a Prov Bm64 at this track on October 24 over 7 ½f, head behind Bondi Blossom with 128lbs at $4.80. The race before that raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 6th of 13 in a Bm64 at this track on October 10 over 7f, 2.25 len behind Gridlock with 129lbs at $15. Getting out to the mile at the fourth run back looks a perfect set-up.
1	Last start 5th of 8 in a Cond Bm68 at this track on October 24 over 1m, 5 len behind La Morra carrying 130lbs at $3.50. The run before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 0.5 len in a Cl1 at this track on October 10 over 1m defeating Mayleigh with 130lbs at $3.70. Down a touch in grade this time so might bounce back. 3rd Pick 1 Cap D'ail Jockey: Jon Grisedale Trainer: Diane Poidevin-Laine J: Jon Grisedale T: Diane Poidevin-Laine	126	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Last start 5th of 8 in a Cond Bm68 at this track on October 24 over 1m, 5 len behind La Morra carrying 130lbs at $3.50. The run before that tracked the speed and boxed on steadily, won by 0.5 len in a Cl1 at this track on October 10 over 1m defeating Mayleigh with 130lbs at $3.70. Down a touch in grade this time so might bounce back.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

State-Bred

A horse bred in a particular state and thus eligible to race in restricted state-bred races. These can be anything from maiden races to stakes events.

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.

Yielding

A rain-soaked turf condition often producing a slick or heavy course and slower finish times.