AU - Kembla Grange - Race 3

Thoroughbred

11 Runners

Maiden

Turf

SOFT 5

31.6K

VIEW

Verdict

MACHRIHANISH (7) started favourite and recorded a fourth career minor placing when a closing second over 6f at Canberra last start. Gets out to this trip for the first time and the shades are a new addition. Those factors may give her that extra edge required. D'ARIZZA (2) started at $41.00 but raced above expectations on debut, beaten just over three lengths into fourth over 6f at this track. Gave every indication that day that this sort of trip will be right up his alley. MR TUCCI (5) hasn't threatened in his three runs to date, a distant second two back over 6 ½f at Canberra the pick of the runs. Might be worth one more chance with the blinkers applied. DASHING TRIPLE (3) is back after a three-month spell. Ran a couple of very nice races at the start of the maiden prep and a good recent trial suggests he is ready to hit the ground running again. That looks to be the race, with ACKNOWLEDGE ME (6) one for first four players with the winkers going on.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
7	Racing well recently. At the latest run 3rd of 9 in a Mdn at Canberra on October 23 over 6f, 0.7 len behind Petomai carrying 119lbs at $2.40. The race before that 3rd of 9 in a Mdn at Muswellbrook on October 5 over 6f, 2.5 len behind Rolling Home carrying 123lbs at $12. Close to a win. Racing well without winning and the addition of blinkers for the first time might be a circuit breaker. 1st Pick 7 Machrihanish Jockey: Jean Van Overmeire Trainer: Richard & Will Freedman J: Jean Van Overmeire T: Richard & Will Freedman	158	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Racing well recently. At the latest run 3rd of 9 in a Mdn at Canberra on October 23 over 6f, 0.7 len behind Petomai carrying 119lbs at $2.40. The race before that 3rd of 9 in a Mdn at Muswellbrook on October 5 over 6f, 2.5 len behind Rolling Home carrying 123lbs at $12. Close to a win. Racing well without winning and the addition of blinkers for the first time might be a circuit breaker.
2	Jumped at long odds at debut, 4th of 8 in a Cg&E Mdn-Sw at this track on October 24 over 6f, 3 len behind Satiri carrying 125lbs at $41. Promising three-year-old gelding who looks ideally placed over the extra 1f. 2nd Pick 2 D'arizza Jockey: Jon Grisedale Trainer: Ross Mcconville J: Jon Grisedale T: Ross Mcconville	88	-	-	-	10%	9/1
Analysis Jumped at long odds at debut, 4th of 8 in a Cg&E Mdn-Sw at this track on October 24 over 6f, 3 len behind Satiri carrying 125lbs at $41. Promising three-year-old gelding who looks ideally placed over the extra 1f.
5	Last start ran second last of 9 in a Mdn-Sw at Canberra on October 23 over 1m, 4.5 len behind Rapid Reigns carrying 125lbs at $3.20. The run before that 2nd of 7 in a Mdn-Sw at Canberra on October 9 over 6 ½f, slow going 4.5 len behind Roy Kelton with 125lbs at $8. Worth another chance coming back in distance with the blinkers on. 3rd Pick 5 Mr Tucci Jockey: Mitchell Bell Trainer: Richard Litt J: Mitchell Bell T: Richard Litt	104	-	-	-	7%	14/1
Analysis Last start ran second last of 9 in a Mdn-Sw at Canberra on October 23 over 1m, 4.5 len behind Rapid Reigns carrying 125lbs at $3.20. The run before that 2nd of 7 in a Mdn-Sw at Canberra on October 9 over 6 ½f, slow going 4.5 len behind Roy Kelton with 125lbs at $8. Worth another chance coming back in distance with the blinkers on.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Also Eligible

A horse that is entered but does not draw into the body of the field due to too many entries, and thus is not permitted to start unless there are enough scratches to shrink the field size.

Rabbit

Also known as a pacemaker; this is a horse with no expected chance of winning but is used to prompt a quick pace on the front end of the race to the benefit of a stablemate who is a closer.

Minus Pool

A pari-mutuel pool – typically a show pool - where one horse is so heavily bet that after deductions there is not enough money left to cover the prescribed minimum on each bet.