AU - Grafton - Race 4

Thoroughbred

13 Runners

5.9f

Maiden

Turf

SOFT 6

34.1K

VIEW

Verdict

SOUTHAMPTON FLARE (4) was crunched from $1.85 into $1.50 when resuming last start over 5f at Ballina but after leading for home was run down near the line. Gets a little weight relief under today's scale, strips fitter, and the blinkers go on so he looks a terrific chance to open the account. DANCE GAVIN DANCE (3) debuted last start at Ballina where he stalked Southampton Flare into the straight and stuck with him all the way, finishing third but just 0.4 lengths behind today's key rival. Plenty of upside and should be thereabouts again. PARFUMIER (12) returns from a spell for new trainer Darren Treacy. Form early last prep at the provincials was strong, albeit on wet tracks. Should come back in good order. KAYAKO (9) is a Spirit Of Boom first starter. Has trialled six times dating back to March, the latest effort the pick. Certainly ready for this. CZECH HER OUT (10) didn't finish too far away first-up at Gosford and can improve enough to play a role in the finish.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
4	Second run back. First-up after four months 2nd of 8 at Ballina Ctry Mdn-Sw on January 9 over 5f, neck behind Australasia carrying 130lbs at $1.50. Previously second-up ran last of 9 at Sale Mdn-Sw on June 25 over 7f, in the wet, 25 len behind Quello Dorato with 131lbs at $26. Fitter and with blinkers on looks all set to go one better. 1st Pick 4 Southampton Flare Jockey: Jake Bayliss Trainer: Matthew Dunn J: Jake Bayliss T: Matthew Dunn	148	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis Second run back. First-up after four months 2nd of 8 at Ballina Ctry Mdn-Sw on January 9 over 5f, neck behind Australasia carrying 130lbs at $1.50. Previously second-up ran last of 9 at Sale Mdn-Sw on June 25 over 7f, in the wet, 25 len behind Quello Dorato with 131lbs at $26. Fitter and with blinkers on looks all set to go one better.
3	Dual acceptor. At debut, 3rd of 8 at Ballina Ctry Mdn-Sw on January 9 over 5f, 0.7 len behind Australasia carrying 127lbs at $11. Open to improvement and expected to be tough to catch. 2nd Pick 3 Dance Gavin Dance Jockey: Danny Peisley Trainer: Owen Glue J: Danny Peisley T: Owen Glue	107	-	-	-	10%	10/1
Analysis Dual acceptor. At debut, 3rd of 8 at Ballina Ctry Mdn-Sw on January 9 over 5f, 0.7 len behind Australasia carrying 127lbs at $11. Open to improvement and expected to be tough to catch.
12	Is first-up after a break of three-and-a-half months and has been in the money when fresh before. Finished off last campaign sixth of 11 at Kembla Grange F&M Mdn October 13 over 7 ½f, 2.5 len behind Luna Bay carrying 120lbs at $51. When resuming last campaign second in a small field at Newcastle 3yo Mdn August 23 over 6 ¼f, in the wet, 3.5 len behind Zoufield carrying 123lbs at $7.50. Nicely placed to make a strong return. 3rd Pick 12 Parfumier Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Darren Treacy J: Non Runner T: Darren Treacy	101	-	-	-	1%	1000/1
Analysis Is first-up after a break of three-and-a-half months and has been in the money when fresh before. Finished off last campaign sixth of 11 at Kembla Grange F&M Mdn October 13 over 7 ½f, 2.5 len behind Luna Bay carrying 120lbs at $51. When resuming last campaign second in a small field at Newcastle 3yo Mdn August 23 over 6 ¼f, in the wet, 3.5 len behind Zoufield carrying 123lbs at $7.50. Nicely placed to make a strong return.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

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A wager involving choosing the first, second, third, and fourth horses in one race in the exact order. A superfecta box involves paying more to ensure they can finish in any order in the top four spots.

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A race with non-claiming conditions set by the racing secretary. They are meant to be a step down from stakes racing.