AU - Grafton - Race 8

Thoroughbred

18 Runners

7.1f

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 6

18.9K

VIEW

Verdict

ZOU BIG BOY (1) first run for the Lea Selby stable and comes back a few levels for this. Sat off the good speed and never looked a winning chance when seventh over 1m at Eagle Farm in C3 company. Earlier runs had merit and gets in light with the 7lbs claim. HEADSTRONG (10) finally drawn a decent barrier fourth-up and has the upside to take this out. Snagged back from the wide gate and covered plenty of ground with an even fifth in a 1m contest at Eagle Farm in C1 class. Kept fresh for this and can return to winning form with Ash Morgan taking the reins. SPILLS (2) in career best form with two wins from his last three starts and gets weight relief with Baker's 7lbs claim. Shot to the front and pulled out plenty to score over 7f at this track. Can rinse and repeat again. AUTUMN MISS (4) was unwanted in betting first-up from the wide gate and ran accordingly with a poor last over 6f at Eagle Farm in BM65 company. Undefeated second-up and stays in the calculations.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	Most recently 7th of 9 at Eagle Farm Cl3 on February 18 over 1m, 6 len behind Kairos Louie carrying 120lbs at $12. The start before that 3rd of 9 at Doomben Bm65 on February 11 over 1 m, on a slow track, 2.25 len behind The Wheelbarrow carrying 127lbs at $6.50. Ready to run a big race in this weaker contest. 1st Pick 1 Zou Big Boy Jockey: Gabrielle Johnston Trainer: Lea Selby J: Gabrielle Johnston T: Lea Selby	116	-	-	-	12%	15/2
Analysis Most recently 7th of 9 at Eagle Farm Cl3 on February 18 over 1m, 6 len behind Kairos Louie carrying 120lbs at $12. The start before that 3rd of 9 at Doomben Bm65 on February 11 over 1 m, on a slow track, 2.25 len behind The Wheelbarrow carrying 127lbs at $6.50. Ready to run a big race in this weaker contest.
10	Comes off a 29 day let-up. Last start settled back and ran on when 5th of 10 at Eagle Farm Cl1-Sw on February 4 over 1m, 5.5 len behind Backstage carrying 130lbs at $26. Before that 5th of 12 at Gold Coast Cl1-Sw on January 23 over 7f, 1.5 len behind Vorkuta carrying 129lbs at $31. Should be at his top now and finally drawn a good gate. 2nd Pick 10 Headstrong Jockey: Ashley Morgan Trainer: Marcus Wilson J: Ashley Morgan T: Marcus Wilson	142	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis Comes off a 29 day let-up. Last start settled back and ran on when 5th of 10 at Eagle Farm Cl1-Sw on February 4 over 1m, 5.5 len behind Backstage carrying 130lbs at $26. Before that 5th of 12 at Gold Coast Cl1-Sw on January 23 over 7f, 1.5 len behind Vorkuta carrying 129lbs at $31. Should be at his top now and finally drawn a good gate.
2	Last start won by 0.7 len at this track Bm58 February 19 over 7f defeating Pressalong with 136lbs at $10. The start before that led to the turn then faded 8th of 11 at this track Bm74 on February 3 over 7f, 5.5 len behind Next Pay Run carrying 121lbs at $26. Will be in this for a long way. 3rd Pick 2 Spills Jockey: Bailie Baker Trainer: Wayne Lawson J: Bailie Baker T: Wayne Lawson	108	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis Last start won by 0.7 len at this track Bm58 February 19 over 7f defeating Pressalong with 136lbs at $10. The start before that led to the turn then faded 8th of 11 at this track Bm74 on February 3 over 7f, 5.5 len behind Next Pay Run carrying 121lbs at $26. Will be in this for a long way.

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A race exclusively for horses who have not previously won.

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