AU - Gold Coast - Race 3

Thoroughbred

15 Runners

Maiden

Turf

SOFT 5

21.1K

VIEW

Verdict

FILTHY (1) has had only three starts and brings the most appealing recent form. Couldn't get the job done as fav last time but was strong late. The rise to 7f should suit him perfectly fourth-up and he can get off the mark this time. CAUTIONARY TAIL (12) finds the maiden win elusive but looks one of the main dangers after being beaten just under a length at Lismore where he had excuses. The weight relief strengthens his case. CREDIBILITY (2) had genuine excuses when fifth on the poly here as favourite and his Grafton second keeps him right in the mix. RISING QUEEN (9) improved sharply when second at Sunshine Coast and has placed at this distance, making her a sound hope if she repeats that latest run. OVER THE LOUVRE (5) has been okay in both runs back and should be further improved third-up.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
1	Finished fourth at Ipswich last start, beaten just over a length as favourite after settling midfield and picking up nicely in the straight. That followed a soft-track third at Lismore when bumped early and steadied, so the lightly raced profile is solid. The new 7f asks a question, but third-up fitness and two wet-track placings give him a strong platform to break through. 1st Pick 1 Filthy Jockey: Dan Mcgillivray Trainer: Todd Pollard J: Dan Mcgillivray T: Todd Pollard	143	-	-	-	46%
Analysis Finished fourth at Ipswich last start, beaten just over a length as favourite after settling midfield and picking up nicely in the straight. That followed a soft-track third at Lismore when bumped early and steadied, so the lightly raced profile is solid. The new 7f asks a question, but third-up fitness and two wet-track placings give him a strong platform to break through.
12	Went close at Lismore last start, finishing third and beaten just under a length by The Epic Journey after being bumped, restrained early and held up on the home turn. That came in country grade and this is harder, but the drop from 130lbs to 122lbs is meaningful. His 12-start maiden record is the knock, his recent form and weight set-up still make him a strong winning chance. 2nd Pick 12 Cautionary Tail Jockey: Ashley Butler Trainer: Marcus Wilson J: Ashley Butler T: Marcus Wilson	169	-	-	-	25%
Analysis Went close at Lismore last start, finishing third and beaten just under a length by The Epic Journey after being bumped, restrained early and held up on the home turn. That came in country grade and this is harder, but the drop from 130lbs to 122lbs is meaningful. His 12-start maiden record is the knock, his recent form and weight set-up still make him a strong winning chance.
2	Had more merit than fifth at Gold Coast Poly suggests, beginning awkwardly, striking interference and having difficulty getting clear before charging home to be beaten three and a half lengths as favourite. His previous Grafton second, beaten a long neck by Steady On on soft ground, was a strong maiden reference. Drawn wide, but his 7f placing keeps him firmly in the winning discussion. 3rd Pick 2 Credibility Jockey: Benjamin Osmond Trainer: Kris Lees J: Benjamin Osmond T: Kris Lees	125	-	-	-	17%
Analysis Had more merit than fifth at Gold Coast Poly suggests, beginning awkwardly, striking interference and having difficulty getting clear before charging home to be beaten three and a half lengths as favourite. His previous Grafton second, beaten a long neck by Steady On on soft ground, was a strong maiden reference. Drawn wide, but his 7f placing keeps him firmly in the winning discussion.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Show Wager

Betting on a horse to finish in the first three spots, which pays out the same whether they win or run second or third.

Bullet

A bullet, or bullet workout, is a workout that was clocked as the best time for a certain distance on a given day.

Objection

Claim of foul lodged by a jockey for perceived dangerous or illegal riding by a rival.